Steemonomics: Earn low, Play high
Some people have the Steem investment process upside down as they disappear when prices are low, and reappear when they are on the rise. While this strategy works for those who are remembered from some bygone era and their auto-voters, most people are likely not going to benefit much, at least in Steem terms.
When prices are low, accounts tend to consolidate their votes and narrow their spread. With things like the dust threshold, many who can't pass it will skip voting on comments at all as they don't want it to go to waste. People also tend to try and increase the value they place on votes, meaning they add a higher percentage.
I have covered this before but Stake is stake and the draw on the pool it has is the draw it has. What does affect it is how much other stake is drawing on the pool. This means that when there are many people selling and less people posting, there is less draw on the pool and, there is less competition on the posts. It is a win for people looking to earn Steem - not necessarily for those looking to earn Steem to sell Steem.
Steem doesn't actually vote, vests do. Let's say an account has 50,000 Steem Power, that is about 100MV and will deliver a 75 cent vote at 100% at the current calculated 3.5 day average price of 26 cents for Steem.
Complicated? Not really, but if you aren't following this now and are looking for earning on Steem - start learning on Steem.
So, when that account votes at 100% VP it will deliver 75 cents to the post. With current prices of 26 cents that is about 3 Steem. But if prices went up 10x to 2.60 - that vote would be worth $7.50 and and about.... 3 Steem. See how it works?
It is all relative,it isn't static.
While 75 cents on a post might seem fitting for that post, 7.50 on the same kind of post later might seem excessive. What that means is that the voter is more likely to drop the percentage downward and let's say they drop it to 50% - or $3.75. What happens is the post that used to get a vote of 3 Steem is now getting a vote of 1.5 Steem but, it is earning 5x more in payout figure.
The voter gets to play when high, that means that they are able to use their staked holdings to have some fun and I will let you know, it feels good to be able to reward people for their work significantly. Really good. Once upon a time I was leasing Steem power and could deliver something like a 10 dollar vote to people, but I wasn't. I was delivering a lot of 2 dollar votes instead.
My leased stake ran at a loss, while many of the people I voted on sold the Steem and profited. Will I vote on the same people next time when they are still unable to support others even though they have earned? Hmmm.
Everyone is free to do with their stake and wallet as they choose - including selling. But, everyone lives with the repercussions of their actions - including getting voted on. While I do think that people should be able to add a bit of a revenue stream to their lives, I also think that being part of the community is looking to be able to reward others that we consume from - and that means owning some stake.
But, this is the thing with investing into Steem. People who do actually buy, earn and power up aren't doing it because of the 1 cent increase in the vote they will get, they are doing it because one day that one cent will be 50 cents for their vote or - 5 dollars more a day. People should remember is that the payout numbers are misleading in terms of Steem earnings. There are many people earning more Steem now than they did earlier, even though the payout numbers are significantly less because they are attracting more stake on the votes.
When prices fall or skyrocket - quality goes to shit.
When SBD was booming at 20 dollars a coin, the amount of shitposts was incredible, so were the amount of alt accounts created by the circlejerks and self-voters to take advantage of the situation. When prices fall, the amount of whining shitposts shoot up as people complain about not earning enough, the good old times and herald in the death of Steem.
In either direction, shitposts increase.
But, there are some people who are consistent and reliable in their approach and while they vary their content over time, they understand enough that their blog is their brand. I am not talking about the "branding" people do on Instagram and end up buying some fake likes to seem popular and attract more hearts, I am talking about the people who build some kind of experience around their blog that people are willing to check-in on and consume often enough. It is these people who are likely also earning more now in Steem than they were earlier because, it is these people a voter can rely on to offer something of value.
How I see it is that it is just like any buy low/sell high investment strategy where the work is done and the risks are taken in the low times so that when things stabilize and improve, the play can start. I believe that too often these days people want to be satisfied 100% of the time, even if that satisfaction now is going to cost them investment potential and cause some level of suffering in the future. I am lucky, I enjoy both sides of the Steem coin, the low times where there is a lot of work to be done, and the high times - where there is a lot of work to be done.
I am looking forward to all of the people who did stay consistently producing and who did power up their earning or buy some additional stake to one day being able to go out into Steem and play with it, spread it around to those they think deserve it and actually provide significant value that people could use, without it costing an arm and a Steem.
If prices went to the previous ATH of $8, that 75 cent vote of the 100MV with all things remaining equal, would deliver a 24 dollar vote. How many of those will it deliver, when it could deliver 20x$12, 40x$6 or 120x$2 dollar votes a day?
Do you want a 100% vote from 100MV now worth 75 cents - or a 10% vote from the same 100MV when Steem is at 8 dollars and it is worth 2.40?
The difference is a 3 Steem vote, or a 0.3 Steem vote.
But, this is just how I see it - your thoughts on it might be different.
Taraz
[ a Steem original ]
I see it the same way.
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There are a lot of human behaviors in the mix here on Steem, people focus on the numbers.
Yes indeed lot's of human behaviours as it takes all kinds to make life interesting.
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I have been on various platforms over the years and this is by far the most interesting one to be a part of in my experience.
Well I have been with you all along and even though you get it and I get it and those that stayed on get it. Some people will never get it because they do not bother to learn. And your blog is really to long to read, they rathe post a pic of their cat.
so I would really appreciate that 100% vote right now :-P especially with Steem at 0.22.
:D
It is way too long to read - just think about the writing of it...
I will give you that vote - when is HF21? ;D
lol. I did not think your post was long. It flowed well and had lots of info.
#keepsteeming
hehe, I will hold you to it. Have they set a date yet anyway? cannot find anything
Umm, I don't think so but as it is in testnet already - i am guessing it will go to the exchanges soon and then not long after that. 3 weeks, 4?
Hoping that for all those who stayed...we'll get to smirk and say "I told you so" to those who didn't
I might not say it and instead go with, "I told you I wouldn't vote" :D
I want to smirk so bad.
I took a bit of a break, only posting periodically, and only upvoting when I had to steem on mobile only. I was able to come back for the PAL airdrops which set me up to succeed when the other tokens started airdropping.
#keepsteeming.
This is a great time to build your following and as you say 'brand' on steem. Many of the ones in it for short term gains will not be active while the price is so low. All Alt coins are getting a bashing while all the institutional money flows into Bitcoin. But a Steem is a Steem is a Steem and building a good foundation with you blog now will help you reap the rewards when spring comes.
The following is an important factor, those that grow together are more likely to support together and also, have fun together.
Bitcoin will do its thing as it does.
That's the big thing. When you have a community to support you, everything else falls into place. And you'll grow along with the people you help out!
A steem is a steem is a steem! Yes.
It's not the first time we've seen this, as you pointed out, yet people still don't learn. Kinda like with the market corrections and emotional decisions.
That's because most people still think in USD and on short term, rather than in STEEM (or in bitcoin) and on the long-term. But they are not the ones to show consistency during all these price swings.
That dollar sign in the payouts really confuses many people. Although new users automatically associate '$' with currency, while STU they might not, they most often think '$' means USD. I much prefer the way SteemPeak presents the rewards, even though STU is so volatile before payout, and its split into author and curation afterwards is again something a new author may not easily understand (seeing the author payout halved compared to what was displayed, after a payout at 50/50%).
People are conditioned. But yes, it is there for familiarity i think but, it becomes confusing if people don't start to learn about the reality of it.
I agree with your opinion, about leaving Steem. I always calculated my 'engagement ROI' in Steem that is how well I'm doing blogging and actively curating, and my 'investment ROI' in USD/BTC, that is extra money I put into Steem.
But when I see trained marine mammals in a swimming pool, I get sad and I want to leave, too. Free Willy!
For those who invest, it is part of the cost averaging, for those who create, it is about build an audience and foundation. Either way, I think it is better to be here than somewhere else.
Careful with freeing Willies, Boobs weren't taken too well ;D
Well. That was long but interesting. The comments were mostly brief no big discussions.
I get your point I think. We are earning Steem, an asset, we should think in terms of long term appreciation and greater value in the future. This is one key.
The other point I agree with strongly. We should be learning how to earn now and taking advantage of the smaller competition, thus potential for greater rewards now, which will make us more influential later.
I think I see it, I live it and work it. I look forward to being right or at least learning from this experience.
Either way I am ahead. Nothing I do for my brain is ever wasted.
🙏🏻 Peace and Good Health to you and yours.
Not a lot of comments these days in general perhaps, for me I have had to keep it brief due to my scheduling for work and family at the moment.
I think it is funny when people are talking about investment but are only here when the prices are high :D
Influential in stake, influential in character too. The fai-rweather sailors can't be trusted as they run at the sign of clouds :)
I constantly have to tell myself this..., think about the STEEM reward and not the USD number at the bottom of your post. Makes sense what you say.. and the branding too.
I have maybe 7 subjects I blog about, when number 7 has been posted it's back to number 1 again. That is the brand of ME. I may do the odd post about something else, but consistency is the key.
I know what to write about... I feel I am knowledgeable about those topics.
Do they add value? Perhaps... some are lessons in history, some are reviews, some are strategy articles., some comedy and outrageous. , its a blogging platform so we shouldn't necessarily focus on this topic too much, but I feel like everything I write should add something.
Some create conversations, laughter, relationships, new posts, new interests, influence a changed behavior. While there is visibility on some, a lot of the value on Steem is hidden in minds.
hi, @tarazkp . all the quantity of numbers, they leave me absorbed. and I agree with you that before the low the first ones that run are those that should not be.
The first ones to run may survive, but the herd continually gets more fearful. Those that stay and survive own the land.
yeah, those migrations are funny 😁 ! I totally agree with your « Steemstem » of thinking as I feel close to that calculation about vote and earnings depending of the STEEM price !
For me, I try to do my best every day, independently from the price fluctuation (love those price to gather more stake !)
Also, I kind feel the analogy between quality and Steem price and the amount of shitpost when the price is high, but that should be the total opposite !!!
Thanks you for sharing your hopeful thoughts every day ! Steem On !
It will eventually stabilize as the price stabilizes and people actually have to be consistent to draw a crowd and earn a reward. These are the early days.
When SBD bolted out the gate, the volume of nonsense was incredible.
I can really imagine that !! I hope to see it but more for the SBD price than for the absurdity of the subjects and posts ! :)
See you soon !
Totally agree and actually believe it is easier with low prices as the competition is less. Remaining consistent is what has given me the experience to earn about 8-10 Steem per day now when I could only get a fraction a day when I started! Together with buying to grow my stake, I have seen the compounding build up over the last year! Can’t wait to swim with the Orcas!
Posted using Partiko iOS
Yep, competition is less but those that are competing might be more determined too.
8-10 Steem per day is good, I will try to add a little more, my SP is smashed at these prices. :D
After the fork, I might not need to vote on comments though so hopefully i will have more for posts.
Can't wait to swim with the Orca's too! Can't grind as much as you two because of school, but trying to buy my way up, bit by bit!
8-10 steem per day! I am happy to see that per week.
I guess its time to up my expectations.
This makes perfect sense when you explain it. I will remember those who stayed when the fairweather steemers start flocking back!
Hopefully some of the autovotes are removed before they come back :)
Lots of economic education has to be done for many people here. Too much weight has been layed on "earning" versus "investing".
Posted using Partiko Android
For sure. The worst is that they have been split apart as if they are unrelated.
Yes! I am working on a post on making money on the blockchain BEYOND the rewards.
I am glad others see it too.
Can you tag me so that I won't miss it?
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We all know it's buy low, sell high, but in reality for most people, it's buy high and hope to sell higher. lol
:)
The fomo is strong in society these days.
The way I see it, if you have any pride in your content or what you post on your blog, you will keep the quality up regardless of whether steem price is low or high. As you said, branding is what it's about and while I know every post I make isn't gold dust, at least the microblogs (shit posts) I put some effort in to.
If even a part timer like me can rank in the top 10 of the steem engagement league then you know it's a bit of a ghost town at the moment. I'll gladly take advantage and accumulate whatever steem I can as I want to make a difference to as many people's lives by upvoting and curating (rewarding effort where I feel due).
Anyway, nice to meet you, will start following 🙂
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Honestly all this place needs are a bunch of people who don't care about earning Steem or understanding any of this but just want to have a place for a community and to share stuff.
Compared to running my own blog site (which I do) I see Steem right now as the most reliably censorship resistant and dependable place to publish my own work. Hence why I mirror everything with Steempress and have set up @tommyrobinson to do the same (that links failed right now, have to kick it on again).
I feel that I'm almost there as far as being able to recommend that we shift some of Tommy's audience over to here in order to discuss his stuff. Perhaps even use Steem for embed the comments on his blog. I just need to be sure I won't have to walk 5000 people through the on boarding process and then there's the resource issue.
What about the Hf 21 changes
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You are an account I will definitely be checking in on. This post is great and you explained your point in a very fundamental way. Thank you.
Here is a cheers for building true community and quality content on this site.
see you around...
np, I am glad that you got some use out of it :)
I saw you featured on the neoxian newspaper and came to give you a visit.
I have been posting a whole lot more since tribes came up, mostly because I am getting more attention from the curators in the tribes.
I am also finding that I am earning a lot more SP than before, this is amazing to me as this is a "future money" account for me. I understand that I will not be able to may my bills with my posts now, but see the value they will have in the future.
And, yes, I have notices that "shit posts" increase with the prices being up or down.
I like steem steady, it makes for better content. Although I do like when I have a bunch of posts ready to post and the price does a little moon, it makes for some nice payouts then.