IPL 2023 KKR vs RR Preview - Can the Royals find a way to win?

Key match stats

Pitch Stats – Eden Gardens

Average first innings score: 205
Average first innings winning score: 222
Average powerplay score: 43
Win % batting 1st vs batting 2nd: 60% / 40%

Team form KKR vs RR

KKR: WWLWL
RR: LLLWL

Recent meetings: IPL 2022 KKR won by 7 wickets, RR won by 7 runs

Preview KKR vs RR

There's an observable trait across all sports whereby teams in form find a way of winning, while teams out of form find a way of losing.

Rajasthan Royals are very much stuck in the second category at the moment and if they don't find a way to win soon then any dreams of success they may have had following their bright start to the campaign look likely to turn into a nightmare.

The fundamental problems for the Royals are quite clear. Their middle order hasn't been able to deliver the necessary runs all season. Their death overs batting which was strong at the start of tournament, has faded badly in recent weeks and they lack bowlers who can close out an innings.

These issues then impact their areas of strength. You get the feeling all season that Buttler and Jaiswal have been unable to really let lose at the top of the order because Rajasthan are concerned about the lack of runs coming at numbers 4 and 5. Similarly, opposition sides can now afford not to take greater risks against Rajasthan's spinners safe in the knowledge that they will get the opportunity to make up the scoring against the seamers later in the match.

One very telling statistics for the Royals was indicated in blog a couple days ago in which I showed that they'd been ahead at the 6 over mark of games in 9 of their 11 matches so far this season, more than any other side in IPL 2023 but have only secured victory in 4 of those games.

By contrast, KKR can be called the come back kings after they completed their 5th victory of the season, 4 of which have now come after they were behind at the end of the powerplay. Will this match follow a similar pattern?

That in part speaks to the relative strength of the KKR middle and lower order compared to Rajasthan but it would also be unfair not to highlight the vast improvement in their top order batting over the last 4 matches which has lead to them winning 3 games and keeping themselves in the hunt for a playoff spot, something that seemed very unlikely at the half way point of IPL 2023.

IPL 2023 KKR powerplay batting stats for the first 5 matches vs the last 6 matches

The above stats show the improvement since the arrival of Jason Roy who is now being partnered with Ramadullah Gurbaz in what looks like a good opening combination. The stats since match day 6 would almost certainly have been better had Roy not been injured fielding in the game against CSK which lead to KKR needing to promote a make shift opener in the form of Sunil Narine.

Spin has looked the more likely weapon to succeed on this Eden Gardens pitch all season and that was particularly true during the match against PBKS on Monday. The spinners on both teams combined to bowl 20 overs for just 142 runs and 8 wickets. By contrast, the remaining 20 overs bowled by seamers went for 211 runs and resulted in just 3 wickets. Both these sides have regularly deployed 3 frontline spinners this season and I'd suggest that will continue in the game here today.

KKR vs RR head to head

RR bowling vs KKR batting

Trent Boult missed the game against SRH with the suggestion that it was due to an injury problem rather the Royals looking to change things personnel wise. Joe Root and Obed McCoy filled in 2 of the overseas slots but neither had any impact on the game with Root not getting a bat and McCoy bowling just a solitary over. If fit, you'd assume that Boult will return to the XI in order to try and get the early break through against Roy and Gurbaz.

Trent Boult T20 head to head vs Roy and Gurbaz

Going into the KKR middle order, there are some great potential match-ups with Rajasthan's spinners. On one hand, you've got Nitish Rana who seems to score runs off Ravi Aswhin for fun.

Ashwin T20 head to head vs Rana

Particularly given Ashwin's record against left-handed batsmen in all forms of the game, the fact that Rana is fast approaching a century against the great man without being dismissed speaks volumes for his abilities against spin.

On the other hand, Rana has been dismissed 5 times in the IPL by Chahal so Rajasthan will be keen to either get him early to avoid one of their key weapons in this match being neutralized or use the wrist-spinners against him as much as possible.

When you take a look at Rajasthan's death bowling stats then their economy rate of 9.5 is fairly impressive and ranks them 4th amongst all franchises. However, a significant part of that economy is underpinned by their 2 main spinners, Ashwin and Chahal who are both recording economy rates of less than a run a ball during the final 5 overs.

Chahal T20 head to head vs Russell

In this game, it looks likely that their spinners will come up against batsmen who have had no trouble scoring quickly off them in past encounters and that heaps further pressure on their underperforming seamers to deliver more at the death.

KKR bowling vs RR batting

I noted in my KKR preview earlier in the week that the Knight Riders were likely to rely on relatively inexperienced seamers for the remainder of the season. Harshit Rana performed well in the powerplay against PBKS but Buttler and Jaiswal will want to capitalise on what appears to be a weakness in this attack. Particularly on this surface and particularly with the spinners that KKR can utilise through the middle portion of the game, RR need a strong start.

Buttler IPL batting stats Eden Gardens

Buttler's return to form in the game against SRH is very welcome for the Royals. You'd have to say that his incredible record last season and that of Jaiswal this year has papered over some of the cracks in this Rajasthan team. Without him and/or Jaiswal going big at the top of the order, it's difficult to see how RR can remain competitive.

Narine and Varun T20 head to head vs Hetmyer

One argument I've seen posed by pundits is to shift Shimron Hetmyer up the order, potentially as a number 4. However, the concern there (and one I'm sure the Royals management shares) is his ability to score quickly against spin. He is far more suited to the role he employs now which is to hit pace bowling during the final 5 overs.

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All stats used in this blog are from my own databases which are freely accessible below
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