Hive FPL - Game Week 15 Match Analysis & Key Stats

It was a bumper week as far as goals are concerned in the Premier League with 37 scored across the 10 matches. In fact that takes the average goals per game this season in the Premier League to 2.87 which, if the trend were to continue, would make it the highest scoring season ever (by average goals per game).

Despite the glut of goals and available points, the average score this gameweek was 53 points which is very much a normal return. It appears that while there were points available not many people had selected the players that returned them. In fact, the likes of Tavernier (16 points), Lallana (13 points) and Wissa (12points) were all owned by fewer than 1 in 1000 FPL managers!

What a match for the neutral and perhaps more importantly for Jesse Marsch's immediate future in charge of Leeds United. Pre-game there was disquiet amongst the Elland Road faithful and at 3-1 down early in the second half it looked as though this might be the final straw. However, despite Leeds' struggles this season, it appears the squad is still keen to play for their beleaguered manager.

From an FPL perspective, Patrick Bamford's (FWD) latest injury set back means that Rodrigo (MID) is once again playing in the number 9 roll plus he appears to have taken over penalty duties which may make him an even more attractive proposition going forward (Bamford of course missed a penalty against Arsenal earlier this season).

As for Bournemouth, Marcus Tavernier (MID) followed up a strong performance against Spurs last week with a 16 point haul in this match which represents over a third of his total FPL points this season. Only Wilfred Zaha (55) has completed more successful dribbles in the Premier League this season than Tavernier (50). Bournemouth are at home to Everton in their final game before the World Cup so the in-form wide man might be worth a look at.

Man City overcame a massive banana skin to gain 3 points against a hardworking albeit fairly toothless Fulham side. Fulham recorded 0.84 expected goals in the game and 0.76 of those came from the penalty they scored! You get the feeling that the West London club arrived at the Ethiad hoping to avoid a thrashing and weren't able to modify their aims despite a man advantage for over an hour.

Both sides started the game without their primary goal threats in Haaland and Mitrovic but it was the former who came off the bench to steal the headlines once again. To be honest, both City goals could or perhaps should have been saved with former Arsenal keeper Bernd Leno going down too early for Alvarez's opening strike and then failing to get enough wrist behind a fairly poor Haaland penalty.

Ultimately though it was another stellar performance from Kevin de Bruyne (MID) that was the defining factor in this game. The Belgian is carrying his side in the absence of Haaland and in a season where other high value midfield options are failing to fire on a regular basis he's looking like an increasingly must have player. It's noticeable as well that de Bruyne passed the 1000 mins played mark this season during this game. Given that he's only managed to scrape passed the 2000 min mark in each of his last 2 full seasons that is a major improvement for FPL managers to note. If he and Haaland stay fit it's difficult to imagine anyone other than City winning the title.

A game with lots of talking points including a flukey last gasp equaliser, a contentious penalty decision and Brentford's horrendous looking kit - if I wanted to watch clowns I'd go to the circus!

While Forest will be relieved with the point, it was another case of them taking the lead (7 times they've lead this season) but failing to deliver the win (2 victories). For context, they've lead in as many games this season as Manchester United who conversely have won every game they've taken the lead in.

Meanwhile Brentford will be bitterly disappointed that they weren't able to seal victory. It's now 1 win from 8 games and despite the Bees bright start to the season, they now find themselves moving in the wrong direction in what is a very congested mid-table battle! I've suggested in a previous blog that their high octane style of play isn't suited to the current fixture list and I'm sure Tomas Franks can't wait for the World Cup break!

One Brentford player to look out for post-World Cup could be full-back Jose Canos (DEF) who continued his return from injury with a few more minutes in this game and almost won it for his side with a late effort.

Morgan Gibbs-White(MID) has taken on an increasingly prominent role in this Forest side who are still trying to find what their best XI is following their summer spending spree. Gibbs-White played in a more orthodox number 10 role in this game having generally played as a wide forward prior to that. He revelled in the role, recording 7 shots and contributing 3 key passes. If Steve Cooper persists in this shape then he's certainly a player to consider.

Brighton put in back to back wins for the first time since Graham Potter's departure and perhaps most importantly moved ahead of Chelsea in the table and into the top 6.

The Seagulls have a number of technically gifted players and Roberto de Zerbi certainly appears to be getting the most out of them. Leandro Trossard (MID) is an FPL favourite but managers might also consider the likes of Adam Lallana (MID) and Kaoru Mitoma (MID) both of whom performed well against Wolves. Lallana has struggled to complete 90mins in a match for the last few seasons which might put FPL players off but Japan international Mitoma has now started the last 2 matches (his first 2 Premier League starts) and contributed a goal and an assist.

As for Wolves, Ruben Neves' (MID) 54 points to date this season puts him ahead of more expensive and popular picks like Son and Zaha. You'd have to say that he's one of the best players playing for a club outside the top half of the Premier League and at 25 years old there will be plenty of clubs lining up to sign a player whose contract ends in 18 months time.

1 point from their first 7 games and now 13 points from their most recent 7 fixtures. Leicester have certainly turned things around after a disastrous start. Youri Tielemans (MID) was one of several Foxes players linked with a move away this summer and perhaps that unsettled the squad. However, his screamer gave his team the lead and Leicester once again looked good going forward in this fixture.

In fact, only the current top 4 and Liverpool have scored more than Brendon Rogers side this season with Harvey Barnes (MID) the 4th highest ranked midfielder in regards threat on the ICT since the start of October and James Maddison (MID) the 4th highest ranked in regards creativity on the same scale.

As for Everton, they continue to look a much improved outfit this season but just lack that cutting edge up front. Alex Iwobi (MID) had a great chance to add to his impressive points haul so far this season put pulled his shot wide, while the returning Dominic Calvert-Lewin (FWD) couldn't beat a much improved Danny Ward (GK) who has now kept 5 clean sheets in his last 7 EPL starts. Again, if the league started in October, then Leicester City would have the best defensive record going!

On a weekend that saw plenty of goals, this fixture failed to really live up to the pre-match expectations. Indeed, while Arsenal looked the better side, with plenty of endeavour and crisp passing through the middle third, their finishing was quite frankly woeful with 14 shots and only 2 on target! Meanwhile Chelsea were very subdued throughout the game registering just 0.29 expected goals in a performance hardly worthy of a big derby.

Patience for Gabriel Jesus (FWD) who was the most selected player at the start of the season is beginning to wear thin. He's not found the back of the net since Gameweek 9 and his value has now dropped back to what it was at the start of the season. Stats wise he is still worthy of consideration being ranked 3rd in ICT overall for forwards but as has been the case in previous seasons his numbers don't ultimately equate to goals with his expected goals vs actual goals once again worse than any other player in the league (5 goals or more).

Of course Chelsea have their own problems up front with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (FWD) touching the ball just 8 times in a very underwhelming performance against his old club before being substituted by the much more lively looking Armando Broja (FWD). Is it time for Potter to consider that being a change from the start? If so, Broja certainly represents decent value for money.

Similarly Raheem Sterling (MID) is struggling to provide any cutting edge within this Chelsea side. His most successful spell at City was between 2017-2020 where he regularly topped the scoring charts but this required him to generate 3 shots per game on average. He is managing 1.68 shots per game on average for Chelsea this season and he hasn't had a shot at goal in his last 3 Premier League fixtures.

The improvement in Villa's fortunes since Steven Gerrard's dismissal are clear and they certainly played with energy and passion in Unai Emery's first game in charge. It's always worth having a look at what changes a new manager might make and which players could be in favour as a result.

The 2 players that really stood out were Leon Bailey (MID) who played in an out and out forward roll and was indeed the most advanced player on the pitch for much of the game and Jacob Ramsey (MID) who was the most advanced of a narrow midfield 4. Ramsey was generally played in a deeper role as a box to box midfielder under the previous regime but in this game was given license to run beyond the front 2 with devastating effect. He was on my watch list earlier in the season and if he continues in his current role will certainly return there!

As for United, their general lack of goal threat was bound to catch up with them eventually. Both their expected goals and actual goals are the lowest in the top half of the Premier League bar 10th placed Crystal Palace. Antony Martial (FWD) did make a return off the bench in this game and he could be worth monitoring when we return after the World Cup.

Newcastle are clicking through the gears very nicely at the moment and Eddie Howe will be disappointed that the momentum his side has built will be stopped by the approaching World Cup. While they were playing well in August and September, Newcastle weren't quite getting the desired results but if the league started in October, they'd be top!

It's difficult to think of anything new to write about Newcastle at the moment. Both Kieran Trippier (DEF) and Miguel Almiron (MID) have established themselves as must have players - I wonder if Jack Grealish has Almiron in his team? Callum Wilson (FWD) who was transferred in by more FPL managers than any other player this week had to leave the field due to illness but should return for the Magpies' final league game.

For Southampton, their Jekyll and Hyde type season continues. They actually had some big chances at 1-0 down to get themselves back into this game and in fact, the real difference between the 2 sides was the finishing, an opinion that is backed up by the fact that Southampton recorded higher expected goals (1.65) than Newcastle (1.42).

This game saw 2 sides who would undoubtedly have been hoping for more from the first part of this season given their exploits last year.

By the start of November last season, West Ham had lost just 2 league games and scored in all but 1 Premier League fixture leading some to suggest a shot at CL qualification might be on the cards. So far this year they've been defeated 8 times and have drawn a blank in 6 fixtures. The real slump of course started at the end of last year when they lost 6 of their last 10 Premier League games and that form has transferred itself through to this season with 14 defeats from their last 24 EPL matches in total.

As for Palace, it shouldn't be forgotten that they had a very difficult run of fixtures early in the season but they've now won 4 of their last 7 games, a better return than the likes of Spurs, Chelsea, Liverpool and United in the same period. Palace are also now the comeback kids, with 4 of their wins this season coming after being behind (more than any other team).

Eberechi Eze (MID) continues to be the player to watch for me. He took 4 shots, made 2 key passes and contributed an assist in this match and is an outside bet to sneak into England's World Cup squad.

Spurs continued their charitable habit of allowing sides at least a 1 goal head start in matches this season. They've now been behind in 8 of their 14 league games this season but despite a flurry of late efforts weren't able to salvage anything from this game.

For Spurs fans and indeed FPL managers it was the return of Dejan Kulusevski (MID) that gave them significantly more cutting edge and if the Swede's numbers last Spring are anything to go by then he's certainly a player to consider when we return from the World Cup. In fact, Conte is so short of forward options at the moment that he was forced to revert to using Ivan Perisic (DEF) as a partner for Harry Kane (FWD). It's hardly the first time that the experienced Croat has played in an advanced position and if he continues in that role against Leeds next week then he might well be worth a look at having hit the woodwork twice in this game!

For Liverpool, the much maligned Mo Salah (MID) is now starting to reward those (like me) who stayed faithful. As far as midfielders are concerned, only Miguel Almiron has scored in more Gameweeks so far this season (7) than Salah (5) and with Liverpool's defensive frailties still very much evident in this fixture, it appears that Klopp is going to play to his side's strength in attack, which suggests more opportunities for Salah. In fact, since the start of October, Salah is ranked 4th overall for threat on the ICT behind only Haaland, Kane and Jesus.