Where has the Russian-Ukrainian conflict reached?

Last February, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a military operation against neighboring Ukraine, which seeks to join NATO, under the pretext that the latter’s plans pose a continuing threat to Russia’s security.

Putin told the Russian people at the time that his goal was to “demilitarize and denazify Ukraine,” to protect those who had been subjected to what he described as eight years of bullying and genocide by the Ukrainian government.

This ongoing war has inflicted great losses on both countries, but it is not just a regional issue taking place between two neighboring countries. Rather, its impact has extended to most countries in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa because of its major economic repercussions on these countries, causing a major economic crisis due to the cessation of Russia’s and Ukraine’s exports of... Energy, fuel and food supplies occupy an important position in the world's agricultural products market, and their wheat exports represent 23 percent of the global market.

The Ukrainian war led to an increase in energy and fuel prices in countries that depended on the exports of these two countries, and a decline in the standard of living of the residents of these countries, which are still suffering from a shortage of products, high prices, and a rise in fuel prices.

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Peace indicators

The recent period witnessed statements from various parties about the possibility of heading to negotiations to resolve the crisis. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently expressed his country's readiness to agree with all parties to the conflict in Ukraine on acceptable solutions, indicating that those parties reject this.

On the other hand, Kiev demands the complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory as a precondition for negotiations. In this context, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that “to end the war in Ukraine, Russia must withdraw its forces from the entire territory of Ukraine,” indicating his country’s desire to hold a “peace summit” by the end of next February, preferably on a platform. The United Nations, with Secretary-General António Guterres as a potential mediator.

Kuliba stressed the ten conditions announced by President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a recorded speech at the G20 summit held in Indonesia in mid-November, as a formula for peace, the last step of which includes “signing a peace agreement.” The Russian presidential spokesman responded to these statements, saying, “We refuse to conduct peace negotiations on Ukraine’s terms.”

International position

The past period witnessed negotiation attempts between Moscow, the United States, NATO, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Russia announced the failure of these attempts, and the Kremlin spokesman said that the US President stipulated Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine, and this is not possible.

On the other hand, the White House said that Putin has not shown any indications that he is ready to end the war in Ukraine. Britain also warned against Putin exploiting the peace negotiations to rebuild the Russian army. British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said that Putin may take advantage of the peace talks in Ukraine to re-equip his forces before launching another attack.

Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stressed in a phone call with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak the need to quickly establish a basis for negotiation between Russia and Ukraine.

Erdogan had previously expressed his hope to establish a peace path between the two countries similar to the grain corridor. Erdogan explained: “A peace path can be established from the grain corridor, and the best path is through dialogue to peace.”

It is noteworthy that on July 22, Istanbul witnessed the signing of the “Initiative Document for the Safe Shipping of Grains and Foodstuffs from Ukrainian Ports” between Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and the United Nations. The agreement included securing grain exports stuck in Ukrainian ports on Black Sea to the world, to address the global food shortage crisis that threatened a humanitarian catastrophe.

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