Crypto Analysis | What's Up With Rune?

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It's been a long time since I did a TA on Rune

But I feel it's worth having another look, since the corrective wave seems to have finished. We could potentially be looking at another macro impulse wave which could take Koin to $300+.

If this seems outrageous have a look for yourself:

Rune has been trading in this wedge for several years now. It has gained tremendous value over this time starting with a listing price of less than 1 cent (!) and saw an all time high of over $20! Yet it has also lost more than 90% value in this bear market. This is actually quite normal for just about any crypto. All coins essentially lose between 80-90% value in a bear market. It's crazy, but that's how it works.

The interesting part of this chart is the way how RUNE moves, We can see a very distinct 3 wave pattern. It's even more obvious when one looks at the daily chart. I won't point them out - rather try to spot this pattern for yourself:

What's the outlook?

Well I think if we try to roughly predict where things could be heading in the next Bull market one way could be by using the fib retracement tool.

When we apply it to the 3 wave pattern running up to the ATHs we can see that this always predicted the bottom of the waves. From then there was another increase ranging from about 100%-400% to the top of the wave.

We can now try to apply this logic to the macro picture. If we assume that the 3 wave top pattern from the ATHs is a fractal of the subwaves running up to the ATHs we can then use a fib retracement for the entire top. This will give us the bottom of the potential macro wave for the next ATHs in the bull makret in ~2024. If we then also extend this by a range of about 100%-400% this gives us the target range.

We can also draw the potential 3 subwave pattern running up to the top:

Is a price range of $100 to $400 realistic? From a TA perspective yes. Although it remains to be seen what the value is for RUNE from a fundamental perspective (being able to swap for native assets). A price of $100 would give RUNE a market cap of 35 billion dollars which is definitely a lot, but probably realistic in a bull market when Bitcoin would have a market cap of several trillions.

As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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