Crypto Analysis | Is Hive’s 2021 Moment here?

Good day Hiveians!

Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!

 

Hive’s 2nd pump this week brings us 120M MC

The stats are actually pretty impressive. Volume is up by over 3000% and is the second largest since May 2024. With the day not even having closed we are already at $78M traded which brings Hive’s MC close to #320 again (down back to 342). I also noticed that Coinmarketcap now indicates over 500M Hive as our circulating supply, although @dalz calculated it at around 409M. Since Coinmarketcap does not take into account HBD (virtual supply), I am not sure why they almost have 100M more. If anybody knows, let me know. Interestingly this amount of volume also means that around 70% of the MC has been traded in a single day... that essentially means that Hive is extremely liquid now, but of course we all know this generally lasts a day or two. But still, not many alt coins have these big pumps (for good or for worse). Also a #89 on volume will bring new eyes on Hive.

Chart from June is giving me crazy vibes

I have made reference to it a couple of times already, especially in the last post. But it’s starting to get really strange. Price is following this pathway almost to the letter. Are some big whales using it as a blueprint? lol. This pathway has now accurately (pretty much to the exact cent price) predicted not only the fall in June, the correct stabilization area ~15 cents, but is now also predicting the exact time of the reversal!
Let me briefly comment on these points:

• the crash in June seemed virtually guaranteed once I saw that the multi year supporting trend line was starting to fail (thin red line).
• the point for consolidation was written in the chart from the flash crash we had in 2021 down to 14 cents. I always thought that Hive needed to break this price area for ending its bear phase.
• the reversal isbased on 2020/2021 price performance when Hive was about to start its big bull run and also needed several months of consolidation.

So this is happening?

We can see that the pathway shows an impulse wave up to around 40 cents with a big resistance at 30 cents where we have the previous multi year support turned resistance as well as the trend line coming from previous highs (purple) on the weekly chart. For a true reversal, price must break this resistance and experience some sort of smaller correction which I am assuming to be at around 40 cents. Price should retest the 30 cent breakout point and then head on towards higher highs.

Breaking the thick red line is going to be a big catalyst. Price has struggled to go above it since Hive’s inception. We only had a couple of months in 2021/2022 above it. If this actually happens, then I think it would make sense to see another big move up to ~$1.1. But this target has a much bigger uncertainity and I will only comment on it again if we actually see the pathway playing out and breaking the thick red line.

FOMO for Hive?

Not only is TA starting to look good again, but we also have a lot of good fundamentals that will finally unleash Hive’s true potential. Can you imagine what could happen to Hive once we actually get integrated into DeFi with native and decentralized smart contracts? This is the missing link that has kept this network under the hood. If we can integrate into DeFi exchanges like Chainge Finance with our new EVM support it will open up our chain to billions of $.

Even better will be the HIVE/BTC pools that will finally give us very deep liquidity (since many whales have talked favorably about this idea I am confident that it will have a high TVL) independent of exchanges. And expanding that with a HIVE/HBD pool will stabilize the network as well.
We already know from Splinterlands and Hive-Engine Smart that smart contracts are a game changer. But getting truly decentralized ones will be another game changer as it will attract more devs to create more dapps on Hive. I can’t wait to see how our ecosystem will look like in another year.

Conclusion

While I have felt overexposed to Hive, I am sensing a bit of FOMO for the first time in a long time. If we can replicate another 2021, Hive will be valued at around $5 with a total MC of 2.5 Billion. Now could be our time to shine degens!

 

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