Crypto Analysis | Hive Rally Continues!

Good day Hiveians!

Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!

 

If you have been following my posts, you know about the rally

I have compared the upward movement of 2023 with the one in 2021 where we had two strong impulse waves. The idea is simple: Hive should rally similarly to back then. If so we should expect the movement to be similar. In a previous post I talked about the fib ratio and how it relates to Hive. I said that Hive would:

If we apply this technique to the current subwave we also see that price will probably continue downward until about 32-34 cents before recovering.

This is exactly what happened. The fib ratio is an amazing tool. In my last post I then looked at the HIVE/BTC charts in more detail. They suggest that a big up or down breakout is about to happen (like a 50-100% movement). Since the macro wave of Hive corrected back to the 0.236 fib ratio at 25 cents and the bear market has ended, we can now say with high confidence that Hive's rally will continue for several more months.

The big picture looks like this:

This is all the way to 2025, when I would expect the crypto cycle to hit a top. Until then we can also expect that Hive will go through probably 2 more rallies and 1 more corrective phase. But as you can see on the left, a "rally" can also have like a 60% correction with it, lasting several months. It is impossible to know how this rally will play out - but the important thing is that we can say with some confidence that it could last for all of 2023.

I have said before that I would expect this rally to go to about $2. But there is a very high uncertainty regarding this, so for now let's just assume a $2+ range. A somewhat conservative scenario could look like this:

Price continuing its rally to the orange resistance at around $2. Again, it might fall short of this range or be much higher. For now we are simply saying "price on average will rather go up than down in 2023".

A more detailed look reveals the "pitfalls". There are 2 major resistances at around 50-70 cents which will be a big challenge to overcome.

Yet a price channel until summer could look like this:

It's going to be interesting how this plays out. I am even more interested in the HIVE/BTC chart, since this will determine Hive's price ratio to BTC for years(!) to come.

 

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As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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