Crypto Analysis | ATH Target for Bitcoin's Next Cycle
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Yesterday we had another look at Bitcoin
The idea of that post was that the end of this bear market may have already happened or is very close. There are two main reasons for this: (A) The amount of time passed since the last ATH and (B) the trend line on the weekly chart.
The time passed since the previous ATH and the end of the bear market has been about 413 and 364 days for the previous two cycles. Currently, we are sitting at around 420 days. If this cycle is not an outlier then we can assume the end of the bear to be very near.
The supporting trend lines on the weekly chart also suggest a closure. Everytime price intercepted this trend line the bear market was basically over.
So what's the target for the next cycle?
One of the most important points of information we can draw from these charts, is that price movement is decreasing overall. We can see that in the descending slope of the trend lines: they are getting flatter. It makes therefore sense to assume that another trend line will be formed for the next cycle that will be even flatter. This is easy to draw into a chart:
If the supporting trend line for the next cycle will be indeed flatter, then it could look something like seen in the chart above. The floor would be around 13-15k and gradually increasing to about 30k in 2027 which could be the end of the next bear cycle. The path outlined here is very rough, but I think it could somewhat accurately predict the ATH range for the bull market. This would be from 150k to around 240k at the end of 2025.
There are several reasons why I came up with this range:
- Fib retracement: the last cycle correctly predicted the top with a fib retracement. It is going to around 240k.
- There are two important trend lines intersecting this area. The blue one is about 10 years old and I think has predictive power. Price went under it recently, and often it touches it again - but now as a resistance. The orange trend line is the former support on the daily chart for this cycle.
- Lastly, an increase to that area would represent an increase of about 9x-14x, not very aggressive of a target, considering that previous cycles had increases that were many folds higher.
It also fits the idea of a decreasing price movement overall. It's not too amazing of a target considering that some are once again saying BTC will go to $1M, but it seems much more realistic.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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Great work. Thanks!
This first small up move comes in summer ... and then we have to wait 2024 summer :))
Nice post!
Agree, every cycle have had diminishing return of a factor of 5. So we saw 100x in 2017 high, 20x this cycle we should see 5x in next from wherever bottom is..
5x is quite low; I hope it's at least a 10x :)
Yea me2, but back check previous low to top, all cycles had a reduction of a factor of 5,2 i think.. somthing like that.
If it were to continue like that Bitcoin would basically not increase in price anymore in a bull. So perhaps this factor will decrease (I think it has to)
It's true, hopefully we'll get a boom in adoption and that will kick it off. 😊
Yes agree, we are on track, same spot as in 2018/19 bear.. looking forward for some relief rally and correction in q3 for a W bottom if history to play out about same.
Let see how things workout from here, hoping for another bull run
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Thanks for sharing your trading Analysis. It's really helpful for us.
A great analysis. A rally coming is brilliant !
Yes, you are absolutely right that this bear market is going to end now and the bull market is going to come. If no more bad news hits the market, in a few days we will see Bitcoin go back to 20,000. At this time, the condition of Bitcoin is such that it seems stable coin. Thanks for sharing your great and valuable analysis.
well I think the real test will still be what happens when stocks crash again. Bitcoin can't really go too much lower since it's already down something like 80%, but stocks could still fall a long way. It seems that Bitcoin has to decouple at some point.