Tesla With A Record Quarter: Wall Street Unimpressed
(Edited)
We have another record quarter from Tesla. And, as is par for the course, Wall Street crushes it.
In this video I go through the 60K+ increase in delieveries and the 70K+ increase in production. Both of these are on a quarter over quarter basis.
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But these numbers are low in the automotive industry. Tesla is still overrated compared to the asset value behind. 2.5x higher marketcap as Toyota, which is showing more the hype or the religion it was.
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Yes but Tesla makes 8x on each car as compared to Toyota.
Plus look at Toyota's balance sheet. They have the largest amount of debt as any company out there.
And is growth hype/religion?
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True, that is why it feels cheap on the materials, the plastic inside does not have a premium feeling compared to the price.
We will see in about 5 years who will sell the most electric cars, as the market was dominated by Tesla especially in the US, but the sales share in the EV market is shrinking.
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Elon has fallen out of favor.
I think Tesla is doing fine in terms of growth but I just think retail is tapped out of cash. This means that the money left over tends to be in those banks/funds and I don't think they like Elon that much right now.
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Summary:
In this video, the speaker discusses Tesla's delivery numbers for Q4, noting that while the company fell short of Wall Street estimates, they still achieved record numbers in both deliveries and production. The speaker suggests possible reasons for the lower-than-expected deliveries, such as smoothing out deliveries over the quarter, potential production disruptions in Fremont, and ongoing supply chain issues. The speaker also mentions Tesla's plans for ramping up production in 2023 to reach a target of 2 million vehicles and highlights the importance of monitoring Tesla's energy division's performance. Overall, the speaker emphasizes that despite negative media narratives, Tesla is likely to report record revenues, profits, and free cash flow, potentially reaching $25 billion in cash reserves.
Detailed Article:
The video opens with a focus on Tesla's delivery numbers for Q4. The speaker addresses the disappointment surrounding Tesla's 405,000 deliveries in contrast to Wall Street's estimate of 420,000. Despite falling short of estimates, Tesla had a record quarter with 439,000 vehicles produced and a notable increase from the previous quarter. The speaker delves into the significant jumps in both deliveries and production, highlighting a 40% increase in deliveries and a 46% increase in production for 2022 over 2021.
The speaker presents various scenarios to explain the lower-than-expected deliveries. One possibility mentioned is the smoothing out of deliveries instead of rushing them out at the quarter-end, potentially leading to about 30,000 produced vehicles being delivered in the next quarter. Another scenario discussed is the impact of potential production disruption in Fremont, similar to what occurred in Shanghai during an upgrade. The speaker speculates on ongoing supply chain issues, suggesting that these factors might have influenced Tesla's delivery numbers.
Tesla's production outlook for 2023 is a key point of discussion, with a goal set at 2 million vehicles. The speaker emphasizes the need for a production increase of approximately 300,000 vehicles throughout the year, especially with Berlin and Austin still in the ramp-up process. The absence of information on Tesla's semis is briefly mentioned, with the focus shifting to Tesla's upcoming earnings call and the potential impact of lowered vehicle prices on sales.
In addition to vehicle sales, the speaker expresses interest in Tesla's energy division's performance, particularly in megapacks. Concerns are raised regarding the timing of revenue recognition for megapacks, with uncertainties about payment terms with utility companies. The speaker speculates that it might take a few months before revenue from megapacks production begins to materialize, highlighting the complexity of revenue recognition in the energy sector compared to vehicle sales.
Despite negative mainstream media narratives portraying Tesla in a bleak light, the speaker remains optimistic about Tesla's future performance. The speaker anticipates record-breaking figures in revenues, profits, and free cash flow for Tesla, suggesting that the company could be sitting on a substantial cash reserve of around $25 billion once financials are released. The video concludes with a positive outlook on Tesla's performance in the coming months and the speaker extending well wishes to the audience until the next update.