USD Shortage Crushing The CNY and YEN
The entire shadow banking system is suffering a major liquidity crisis. This is something that the financial media fails to mention. It is easy to see why people misunderstand what is really taking place.
We are seeing a major situation arising that is guaranteed to spread to the rest of the world. Forget the Fed, Russia, and all the Shanghai lockdowns. That is just noise on top of what was already in motion.
Each time there is another crisis it comes back to the same issue. The global banking system is being starved of both cash along with collateral. Once again, the Fed proves that the reserve it produces are worthless.
Selling Treasuries
China is selling Treasuries. Europe has been selling them since 2014. Why is this being done?
The media and other false narratives tell us it is because everyone wants out of the USD. After all, we are told the dollar is going to collapse.
Think about that for a second: why would countries in Europe divest from USD holdings when the EURO is probably the worst of the major currencies out there? There is no reason for the Europeans to do this except one.
They need USD.
This is why countries sell US Treasuries. There is no reason under the sun to sell what the global banking system considers to be pristine collateral. When you have the most valued asset, you leverage it, not sell it.
That is, of course, unless you need the money. This is the situation that many countries find themselves in.
Reserve Currency
Here is another myth we hear: the USD is not going to be the reserve currency for much longer. Presuming the USD fits that description, which it does not exactly, there is no way its status is in jeopardy. This is more of the same nonsense that was espoused over the last 30 years. Ideologues claim that the USD is collapsing and going to be replaced. Yet it never is.
Some feel China wants the YUAN as the reserve currency. That is a total joke. There are two problems with this.
- The Chinese are not trusted by the international financial community
- The CCP is not willing to give up capital controls
To be the reserve currency, people need access to it. If the CCP was to open up the YUAN to distribution, capital controls go out the window. That means the wealthy in China could get their money out. It is impossible to provide the world with the currency and still keep it locked in the country. Once those pathways are established, it is impossible to control the flow of capital.
It is also where the nation that is in that position of providing the currency has to be willing to run a trade deficit. China runs a massive surplus with the rest of the world, especially the United States. If we think there is a shortage now, what would happen when each month hundreds of billions of YUAN flow into China.
This goes against the idea of a global reserve currency.
China's Economic Woes
The reality is China has some serious economic woes. Everyone in the West, especially the United States, should pay heed to this.
We see the YUAN collapsing and not because it is being devalued. This is another false narrative. The CCP does not want a crashing currency. Instead, it wants stability. Xi warned the West for two years that things are crappy yet few paid heed. Now, it is really starting to get bad.
It is easy to see why the YUAN is crashing but why the YEN. This is not as obvious yet it makes a lot of sense.
The Japanese banks did a lot of investing in China. Even though they were breaking away with commerce (manufacturing) to a degree, the financial industry got heavily involved. Since there is massive exposure, the currency markets are hitting the Japanese with the same stroke of the bearish pen.
All of this can be traced back to the shortage of USD. With a simple supply/demand equation, if there was adequate supply, the USD against other currencies should be going down. Nonetheless, we finding it pushing higher.
Even the markets that were holding up well, the ones with a "commodity" backing their currency, like the emerging markets, are getting hammered. The global financial players see there is a USD shortage and acting accordingly.
When there is not enough liquidity in the market, it is impossible to have economic expansion. The Fed, with their quantitative easing programs did the exact opposite of what they set out to do. Their easing actually tightens economic conditions. When the Repo market is starved of collateral (because the Fed is growing its balance sheet), the entire system gets wrecked.
This is not a novel situation. Since the Great Financial Crisis the global banking and monetary system was being starved. We already saw a collateral shortage due to the fact that US Treasuries are the only form of top notch collateral. Now, with the US banking system awash with cash, the global system is suffering. The latter creates Triffin's Dilemma while the former crushes the solution.
Have no fear, the Fed is here to save everyone. Their solution is to crush the global economy.
We all know how this one is going to work out.
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There is so much that people don't understand about how liquidity works. Just like they don't understand the debt can't actually be paid off without collapsing the money supply.
The same system that enslaved us is the system that allows economic growth to exist. It's a nightmare of push and pull and and no matter push or pull each action seems to just bury us a little deeper.
Great article. It sounds like you listen to a bit of Real Vision?
At times but this isnt really part of what I heard them talking about. They tend not to go deep into the international banking system. There might be some guests on there but Pal himself doesnt talk much about it from what I saw.
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I took a break from a lot of the hardcore economics stuff last year but they did have a lot of guest interviews that talked about this sort of thing. I learned a lot.
It's funny though because you have all these experts with high powered jobs at high powered banks and funds and none of them agree on how any part of our economy or banking system works, who does what or how any of it interacts. Makes you realize we're just in one giant academic experiment and no one knows what any of these buttons really do.
Same with my job I guess.
The challenge is few people are involved in the international banking system. They look at the things that are above board. The reality the Repo market and Eurodollar system is where it is all at.
And few focus upon that. How often do you see interviews with people trading in that arena? This is where the true knowledge is.
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Yep. Once I started learning about this stuff it was comical to see what the financial media reports as reasons for price action in the more closely followed stock market.
I doubt one talking head could explain why the fed was in the repo market or why they couldn't pull out of it.
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Without a doubt. I am not sure most of them know what the Repo market.
There is a lot more going on that these people have no clue about. It is why the international banking system is so powerful.
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***Accidentally replied to my own comment here. reposted in the right place below.
Yep. Once I started learning about this stuff it was comical to see what the financial media reports as reasons for price action in the more closely followed stock market.
I doubt one talking head could explain why the fed was in the repo market or why they couldn't pull out of it.
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But selling the most valuable asset they own could not bring them any more trouble in the near future. Since the money runs out quickly and if they don't know how to take advantage of it, where would they get other resources to sell and solve their economic problems.
Well if you have buy things such as energy or food and you need USD that is the only thing to do.
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Finally an explanation for the disastrous yen performance. I've been living off and on in Japan for over 20 years and I never remember it getting this bad. It's great when I send money back home, but horrible for buying anything imported.
Yeah there is a belief that the Japanese banks have a lot of exposure to China and the fact that China's numbers are dipping is taking the YEN down with it.
The fear globally is starting to affect all currencies. Not only is the USD up on GDX which is EURO heavy, it is individually against most countries. There is a sense that something is very wrong with the global economy.
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I have always stated this actually. The USD isn't goin g anywhere as a reserve currency anytime soon
On that level I agree with you.
And then I can toss in that the USD isnt actually the reserve currency. That blows people's minds.
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You are right, there looks like a huge short squeeze in USD. This is what will cause a recession, a shortage of cash.
We are already seeing less inflation by commercial banks through lower lending with the huge move up in interest rates for commercial lending in real estate... once that trickles into the market..
There will be no leaving the USD as a reserve currency in the near future. Over 60% of trade is in USD!
You mentioned the US running deficits and being the reserve currency. What about when they ran surpluses AND were the reserve currency?
Is this really an important factor?
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And that is the above board transactions. What about all the bilateral agreements that take place daily in USD denomination. That amounts to trillions per day (maybe tens of trillions nobody knows).
Yes it is. If they run surpluses then USD distribution needs to occur in other ways such as lending or FOREX investment.
Running a deficit is an easy way to get USD out there. Right now, we see $100 billion in USD sent around the world simply through normal business operations. That helps to avoid Triffin's Dilemma.
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Learn something every day. Thanks!
QE doesn't help any of the other countries trying to get dollars as more of it gets locked up. I am wondering if it's also concerns about sanctions because they have seen what happened to Russia so China might be scared to see it happen to them.
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Without a doubt QE only made things worse. A lot worse. It is killing the amount of collateral the banking system has to operate. This is a major problem.
China is already looking at what is taking place with Russia and preparing to see what if they do that to us. The CCP is well aware of the situation.
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USD is probably gaining value against most if not all fiat currencies these days.
It will until it kills the global economy, especially emerging markets and the Fed has to quickly reverse course and start easing again.
I look for that to happen in the second half of the year.
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I like your take on China and the notion that the yuan will be the reserve. I think it’s also unlikely but didn’t think of the notion of control. The plan for the world is to be enslaved like they are in China though so it’s certainly on their agenda to get there. By 2030? I doubt it and hope not!
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China isnt as much of a threat as many people believe. There are some challenges ahead for them.
The US is decoupling as much as they can. Unlike the Russians, China is overtly linked to the US and, in turn, the USD.
A lot of what people make it out to be is not true.
That said, the West, especially the EU, is not without its faults. This is going to be very interesting to watch. There is really a race to the bottom.
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let me get this clear will this move from chain and Japan affect the USD value in the market?
cause it seems like they want the USD out of their area from my understanding.
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Neither are taking on the USD. They both need it and are deep in it, especially China. The latter is actually really tied to the USD since they export to the US.
Do not forget that both countries want access to the largest consumption market in the world. And guess what that country pays in?
The USD.
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I get it now, it's just that china and japan don't want each other company but they just have to work together for their goals to be fulfilled or something like that
Japan and China's relationship are different from the bankers relationship. That is what people always need to keep in mind.
The Japanese government, especially under the new leader, is not very pro-China. Bankers are pro-money and if they can make a dollar off it, they dont care where it is.
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