The Hollywood Writers Settle Strike In Time To Be Replaced
This is a fast moving story.
To give a quick overview, the Hollywood writers went on strike, at least in part, over dispute regarding artificial intelligence. It seems they are concerned about movie studios turning to this technology.
At the same time, there was also the desire to be paid on work done, especially as it pertained to streaming.
Last week, an agreement was reached. As to who got the better end of the deal, that depends upon who you listen to. However, it is universally agreed that most writers are going to end up on the short end of the stick.
Some will make out like bandits but the majority will likely end up out of a job.
So why would the union agree to such a deal?
The reality is there was no choice. In this article we will discuss exactly what is happening in this arena.
Actors Are Going To Be Next
The actors union is still on strike.
They went out much later than the writers but they are facing a similar problem. We are going to see the rest of the decade spent replacing human actors. This is something that will accelerate, driven by the technological advancements.
If this seems far-fetched, let us look at this preview.
This is a preview for an AI generated film. It was not done by any major movie studio. Instead, it was done by someone who isn't known in the film industry.
And here is the crux of the matter.
Whether it is the writers or actors, they simply will not be needed. Software is already able to write scripts. As we can see, generative AI is already to the point where quality video can be created. This is where it stands in 2023.
Where do you think this will be in 2025?
The reality is that we are likely to see the ability for anyone with some decent programming skills able to produce feature length content within a few years. This is not Sci-Fi, far out stuff. It is just around the corner.
AI Taking Over
The ChatGPT moment changed humanity. We are going to look back on that moment as the start of a new direction.
Since that time, we now have an arms race between every major technology company there is. While it was likely happening in the background, it is now front and center.
This past week, Amazon announced it was spending $4 billion for Claude. Even more importantly, we are seeing generative AI starting to be included in all our favorite platforms. Did you notice what Bing did. Not only did they add it to search, but there is chat along with generative AI within the image creator.
All of this is advancing ahead at a rapid pace.
Demand is off the charts. With what is taking place, this is not the problem. Suddenly, there is a supply issue with NVIDIA chips being backordered. Manufacturers are going to have to step up and get a lot more product out. This is the bottleneck.
It is easy to get lost in what is taking place, especially when it comes to the pace of things. The above video, however, should be a slap in the face in terms of the progress. We are looking at incredible abilities with nothing more than a PC (or even laptop).
Does This Mean Jobs Are Done?
Not at the moment.
It will take some time for all of this to filter out. One film does not make an entire industry. If you will, consider this a proof-of-concept.
What it does show is how much things are changing and the potential we are looking at. How will things look when the GPU capabilities are triple or quadruple what they are today? What happens when the AI stack and architecture is such that another doubling of processing power is squeezed out?
The reality is that much of the job destruction will occur without most noticing. After all, unless we follow an industry, do we pay attention. What is happening in the ATM repair industry? Are jobs plentiful? The majority of us have no clue.
Perhaps we will start to hear of writers who were laid off. I think what might be more interesting to watch is how the movie studios fare. They no longer have a monopoly on content creation. If anyone can produce a feature length film, what is the point of Hollywood studios?
This is where things can really get disrupted. The reign of Hollywood might be over. We could get record breaking films produced in other sections of the United States, or even countries such as Japan or China.
In other words, do not underestimate the potential development of this technology. By 2028, we have no idea where it will be.
Of course, this is par for the course with technology. The early mobile phone systems were pretty crappy. They were also expensive. Yet, today, much of the world using a smartphone. It seems things changed a great deal in the past 40 years since cellular technology started to appear in the U.S.
It is gong to be the same here. Sadly, for those who are employed in jobs that are in the line of sight for this technology, it is game over. It will not take decades for this to become a problem.
The writers might have "won" in the dispute with the studios but it will be short-lived.
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Many are in a delusional state, thinking it won’t happen in their industry. Most industries will be affected! !PIZZA
I agree. There will be few industries that are not disrupted in some way.
Knowledge work seems like it is at the top of the list for disruption.
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Yeah the 3 year deal is for sure the limit of this for these people. After 3 years most of them are going to be done or rethink themselves into prompt engineers or something.
The only thing I’m worried about is regulatory capture and strangulation. We can’t be delusional to think that these big behemoths aren’t trying desperately to regulate it all under their control. In the long term it won’t work but in the short term it will have impacts on the people making names for themselves in these areas. It’s impossible for them to stop it but they will likely pass laws that threaten people with fines and jail the same way they did with music piracy in the past.
And how did that work with the piracy. Plus, what happens if the ones doing it are the Chinese? Or the Russians? Do they care what the USG thinks?
That is why I say the biggest thing to get disrupted will be government. It is not designed for the digital age.
This puts the concept of fast-vertising into a whole new light. Imagine the speed at which one could leverage the latest trends or viral content? If we thought Ryan Reynolds and Maximum Effort Marketing was fast marketing Aviation Gin with the Peloton Wife just imagine how fast anyone could be with this type of AI advancement.
Only limited to bandwidth.
Realistically, people are not envisioning the changes that will take place over the next decade. With the way things are going, at least with knowledge work, it all is going to be upended. This includes all the tangent things like advertising.
This mean assets will become more important than income since the latter will be vastly affected.
No job out there is safe over the next ten years. It doesn't stop at writers and actors. Coders, doctors, onlyfans models, musicians, researchers, paralegals (and likely lawyers), drivers, and probably even manual laborers are mostly done.
As of this moment though, I write $500 SEO articles for a well known AI company whose whole product is based around that fact that it will write your SEO articles for you. So we have a little bit of time left 😂
I would agree although a few of those are going to be slowed because of regulation and government.
But yeah no job, especially in knowledge work, is safe.
Regulation and the fact that work produced by AI currently can't be claimed as intellectual property.
Not that it matter since we are building systems that make that a moot point. NFTs could end up settling that.