Get Ready For The Bull

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Is the bear market over?

It is not quite over yet but we are getting closer. We are nearing the time when risk on is the active choice.

Please be mindful this is not financial advice or a forecast. Instead, we are simply sizing up where the markets are compared to the economy.

From a macro-perspective, things could get pretty bad. There are a lot of signs that we could face some serious economic headwinds. The debate about recession is often more a technical one. However, we see some areas where the likelihood of downturn is rising.

Of course, this should come as no surprise. Everyone and their brother is talking about the potential of a recession. That is why we can start to look at the idea of the bull starting to run.

In short, it is likely that, by this point, the markets have priced in recession.

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Markets And Economy Separate

It is important to separate the economy from markets. The first point of importance is markets move a lot quicker than economies. Think of it as a jet ski versus an oil tanker. The former will maneuver a lot quicker than the latter.

Markets have a mind of their own. Unfortunately, fundamentals have little to do with them. In the end, it is the collective emotional consciousness of the participants. We know markets are driven by fear and greed.

For the last 16 months, we were mostly in a risk off environment. The flow of capital was one of safety. Cryptocurrency got crushed along with high P-E tech stocks. These are risk on assets, ones that were dumped.

When the reversal happens, i.e. sentiment changes, these are going to be what people pile into. That is what moves markets. Hence, even if the economy is going down, the markets can rise due to how money is responding.

For example, a sign would be a move out of stablecoins into other cryptocurrency. By the same notion, a move from the Home Depots to Google or Amazon would also indicate this shift.

Sideways Grind

We might be in a period of sideways trading for a while. This could mean some volatility as the markets react to headlines. In the end, we likely have a breakout to the upside.

When will this happen? That is always the billion dollar question.

My guess is 2024 is going to be a stellar year for risk on assets. This means we could see the moves starting in the second half of this year. That said, the entire year (2023) might be accumulation. Those who see what is coming are going to want to be positioned.

Initially, my view was that Q2 might kick things off. I wrote about this last fall. However, due to macro fears, it looks like it could be slightly delayed. Either way, those who wait for 2024 might find that a good portion of the move took place before they were even aware.

Bull markets can surprise us. When everyone is talking about how bad things are, that is when markets tend to turn.

We starting to see signs of things cracking in early 2022. While the numbers were still holding up, there were areas where many people noticed something was miss. Here we sit, a year later, and the storyline is still the same. This is key.

When we look at these types of situations, we see that markets tend to reverse about halfway through the economic decline. Again, markets are more agile than economies. So, while I believe the economy (globally) is still going to face headwinds, perhaps deep into 2024, markets will move a lot sooner.

Are we there yet? Not likely.

The key is we might be getting close though.

See how things progress in the second quarter. We could find that H2, 2023 is a time to load up. The fourth quarter could start a run that makes most of us very happy.

If you found this article informative, please give an upvote and rehive.

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22 comments
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Yeah, it's still grind it out and accumulate time. Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on how you want to look at it, Hive and Leo probably aren't going anywhere over the next few months so I think we all still have plenty of time to keep filling our bags. That said, we actually do need to be stacking now because you never know when the switch will turn. I don't have them at hand, but I've read many an article showing how like 80% of the moves happen in like 5% of the days. Something like that. In other words, if you're not in when it starts to go, you can easily miss out on the biggest returns. Just gotta keep stacking.

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Crypto market is under control of bears from many months when BTC was around 60k USD and BTC was around 22k which also touch 16k a few months ago. I think this thing loose the interest of investors. Many Future traders are liquidated. I know it is highly volatile Market but it continuously going down. I don't know where is the bottom.

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My new jobs have put me into accumulation mode for sure. I have am going back to more of my roots though and narrowing my crypto investments down to 3... BTC, LTC, and HIVE. At this point it doesn't matter where you buy in this particular range, you will make money in the long run. My new strategy basically is going like this:

Basically left over after expenses from my fiat jobs buy my Bitcoin and build back my trading stacks probably on Robinhood so I can take advantage of other opportunities like stocks and options trading, eventually getting to a certain number and dropping one of the jobs for trading.

Hive Engine rewards go into Litecoin.

Hive and HBD rewards will be stacked in HP, HBD Savings, and traded on the internal exchange.

I am basically done with everything else other than some physical stuff like bullets and farm stuff for when I move back to the family farm and turn it into a cash flowing bad ass business where I will sell eggs, mushrooms, and greens for crypto... GOALS!

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Why LTC? Not criticizing, just curious why. I’m with u on the rest! Bitcoin Hive & physical metal is what I’m stacking. Leo also.

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(Edited)

I use LTC all the time. Faster and cheaper fees than BTC with the same overall fundamentals. Been up and running for nearly 12 years at this point with no hacks or halts. I still see it as the silver to BTC’s gold. I used to mine it when I wasn’t a nomadic type so I am partial to my roots and what works. Accepted in the same places BTC is for the most part as well.

When I get to a stable point again my plan is to build a solar powered Monero mining farm so I will be adding that back into the mix.

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I like using it also, but investing wise it’s been horrible.

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I don’t buy anything but BTC so I don’t look at it as an investment, it’s money I have earned. Basically it’s how I get out of Hive into a form I can use in the real world whether I buy gift cards, use my Bitpay card, or hit up a crypto ATM, I can use LTC. So I stack it until I need it. So instead of having to sell BTC, I sell LTC and replace it with Hive Engine rewards

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. . . a sign would be a move out of stablecoins into other cryptocurrency. By the same notion, a move from the Home Depots to Google or Amazon would also indicate this shift.

Waiting for such a happen to take place.

My guess is 2024 is going to be a stellar year for risk on assets. This means we could see the moves starting in the second half of this year. That said, the entire year (2023) might be accumulation. Those who see what is coming are going to want to be positioned.

Still have 10 months to position ourselves.

!PIZZA

!CTP

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We are in the sideways grind and I have found that there are people promoting bonds/treasuries instead of stocks. After all, things like the FAANG stocks have gone nowhere in a while but people would be able to get some interest through bonds. The options are there but I am not sure whether or not the economic indicators have changed yet though.

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In 20 something years of messing with these markets I've learned the path of least resistance is usually up. THe way these markets were acting just before the latest fed comments certainly seemed to be indicating the worst was already priced in. Now we are adjusting again based on new data and then it will be time to turn up again.

I see too many people who don't believe the market can go up if the fed isn't done raising. A lot of new market participants still need to learn the ropes.

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(Edited)

The Fed heading to 6% funds rate. This bear ain’t over yet! It’s hardly started I’d bet. It’s not about not believing if can go up, it’s knowing since 2008 it’s all based on low rates. It’s not the same world as b4.

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It's always about something. And then it stops being about that thing and it moves on to being about something else. And the markets go up again as everyone who believes it's all about the last thing still are left behind.

It's possible we have a lot further down to go. It's unlikely though.

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I am even seeing various predictions that the market will be bullish in a few months. I do not know how true it is though

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I doubt it anytime in 2023, but I like that! Good chance to add funds and dollar cost average at this is area price.

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When everyone is talking about how bad things are, that is when markets tend to turn.

Plebs should write that on the wall so they won't be taken by surprise by the bull market, which could be unfolding while they wait "mouth open" like chicken for the crypto gurus to pour their infinite knowledge and wisdom down their beaks...

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I could live with few more days of bear market, need to accumulate more assets 😎

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