The Macro Moment: Inventories, China, And Recession
We talked about this for the last 6 months. Now we are starting to see things coming into focus.
In this video I discuss how invetories continue to rise while China's economy (led by the real estate market) collapsed. We are also seeing the nonsense regarding the Fed to break as the markets reject what it is doing.
▶️ 3Speak
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Personally I've heard quite a bit of people say that Bitcoin is going to break out of this artificial crash and if I was smart like other people I would do my best to accumulate as much Bitcoin as I can at the moment...
Absolutely doesn't sound like a bad idea to me...
Excellent post from you yet again thank you very much for your content and knowledge on these subjects.
If you are a long term believer in Bitcoin, hard to argue against adding at lower levels. Will it go lower from here? Hard to know.
I find it best to stage my buys. Buy a bit at one level; then add more if it goes down.
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I get most of my Bitcoin from a faucet... So it going down means I make double hourly... Keep stacking more while you can. The market won't stay down forever.
@pixresteemer(8/10) gave you LUV.
H-E tools | discord | community | <>< daily
If China is one of the world's leading economies and if it suffers, all those that depend on it will surely do so too, and if transnational companies do not do a good job, all markets will suffer the consequences.
Yay! Here comes the collapse of the Western financial system. The Ruble will rule the world.
The question is how will the Fed bring more dollars into circulation right now. I don't think they can do much unless they force the banks to loan but they don't have that control. Banks aren't really in it to lose money unless it's the government backing the debt.
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Summary:
In this episode, Task discusses the current state of the U.S. economy, highlighting the struggle with minimal growth, inventory buildups, and lack of demand for certain products. He mentions the decline in sales in Chinese real estate, leading to a significant drop. Task elaborates on the dollar shortage, explaining how countries need dollars to make payments due to dollar-denominated debts. He touches on the implications of countries like Sri Lanka defaulting on dollar-denominated debt and warns about the potential spread of such situations.
Task also addresses issues like consumer sentiment, demand for durable goods, supply chain problems, and the drying up of demand for used cars. He questions the intentional slowing down of car production by manufacturers to maintain higher prices. The episode concludes with Task's insights on interest rates, inflation, growth expectations, and the possibility of a disinflationary or deflationary environment in the near future, with potential consequences on unemployment and industry layoffs.
Detailed Article:
Task delves into the U.S. economy's struggles, emphasizing the three quarters of minimal growth and the impact of inventory buildups on the perception of growth figures. He points out that major retailers like Walmart and Target are facing excess stock issues, particularly in high-margin items due to changing buying habits influenced by price increases on essential goods. Task warns about the potential consequences of an overestimation of demand and discusses the decline in sales in Chinese real estate, particularly referencing Evergrande's situation.
The discussion shifts to the dollar shortage dilemma, where Task explains how countries with dollar-denominated debts struggle to acquire enough dollars for payments, leading to potential defaults. He highlights the importance of countries exporting goods or selling treasuries to obtain dollars and the essential role of banking systems in providing dollar liquidity for debt payments. Task uses Sri Lanka's default on dollar-denominated debt as a case in point, indicating the possible escalation of such issues globally.
Furthermore, Task touches on consumer sentiment and its impact on purchasing behavior, citing University of Michigan consumer sentiment trends and its correlation with demand for consumer goods like durable goods and vehicles. He delves into the supply chain challenges, particularly focusing on the decrease in demand for used vehicles and the possible deliberate slowdown in new car production by manufacturers to maintain higher prices.
Task then delves into interest rates, inflation, and growth expectations, challenging common narratives by suggesting a potential shift to a disinflationary or even deflationary environment in the future. He warns about the implications on industries like the mortgage sector, evident from layoffs and economic repercussions. Task concludes by shedding light on the interconnectedness of economic factors, potential consequences of misinterpretations, and the importance of reevaluating assumptions amidst evolving economic conditions.