YouTube's Decline Should Help Web 3.0
As the song proclaims, the times they are a-changin.
We are watching a technological marvel happening before our eyes. The shift that is taking place is massive. Here we are seeing software driving disruption, a great deal which we discuss in these articles.
One of the biggest innovations is the next generation of the Internet. This is a logical progression of the medium that completely changed the world. At its core is a different ownership structure that will make data free flowing. This is the major hindrance to the present configuration. Innovation was stifled due to the fact that everything became centralized.
YouTube was one of the major disrupters in the generation. The impact upon the broadcast and video industry is unfathomable. It set in motion a wave of disruption that is not yet completed.
That said, it appears that YouTube is now the target.
YouTube: Heading For Decline?
It is hard to envision behemoths being toppled. For whatever reason, we believe these entities will go on forever. This was probably compounded by the "too big to fail" mindset that has infected the world over the last couple decades.
Nevertheless, history shows us that even the biggest can fall. YouTube is no exception and we can see things starting to transition right before our eyes.
Before going any further, let us be clear: we are not making the case YouTube is going to vanish anytime soon. It is not. The influence, however, is already starting to decline.
This is something that will continue.
Here is a headline from Business Insider:
The article explores how YouTube is becoming extremely challenging to navigate if one is a content creator. The AI generation is starting to hinder the ability to earn on the platform. It goes through a few of the larger creators who cashed out by selling their channels. Basically, the theory is that YouTube is going to be a place for mega-content creators and bots.
This is no a forecast that is unrealistic. We already see the shift in that direction. The percentage of people who are making money on YouTube, as a percentage of the accounts, is minimal.
Here is the Web 3.0 opportunity although most do not realize it.
The Disruption of YouTube
This is not something that happened overnight.
TikTok was the first platform to really fire a warning shot. The emergence of shorts caught Google on its heels. Over the last decade, this alternate platform started to pull eyeballs away. This led to similar features show up on Facebook and Twitter (X).
What YouTube lost was the moat. We are rapidly moving towards a time when there are plenty of alternatives, especially for the longer form content.
Many are pointing to Rumble as the replacement. While this platform has done exceptional, it is really a mirror image of YouTube. The only difference is who is running the show.
Hence the dilemma all these Web 2.0 companies find themselves in. They simply cannot get away from the structure that is in place. That means, in my estimation, they are going to keep fighting over a declining number of users.
In this regard, there will be one or two platforms that end up milking from the rest. No longer are we seeing the old segmentation of video, long form, microblogging, and social activity. Basically, all platforms are going to provide similar services.
That means the winner, will be the ones that bring differential to the table.
Web 3.0
Web 3.0 doesn't deal in this mess.
The bottom line for all content creators, no matter which Web 2.0 platform we use as an example, is they own nothing. There is no ownership of the content, data, or platform. Nothing is granted by using the service. While income might be derived, that is the extent of it.
As we stated in a number of other articles, Web 3.0 offers a completely different ownership structure. When one engages with a Web 3.0 platform, there is the ability to have stake in it. Depending upon the tokenomics of that Network, one can directly benefit financially from the growth.
This is not the case in Web 2.0.
So why does YouTube decline help Web 3.0?
This has to do with something very basic.
To start, we are dealing with the altering of habits. Humans are repetitive creatures. One of the hardest things to do online is to get people to switch where they are doing things. It is why Web 3.0 has such a challenge. Even those who talk about Web 3.0 and are supposedly involved in it are spending most of their time on Web 2.0 platforms. Their engagement is almost non-existent on Web 3.0.
The other piece is the network effects.
Here is another topic we have gone into great detail with. The key is the multiplier effect, as spelled out in Metcalfe's and Reed's Laws. They both show how each additional node to a network has a greater than a 1 impact. These stems from the basic network effects derived from the connections that can be established.
Here is the crux of the matter for YouTube: it works in reverse also.
Each lost user has a greater than one impact. This is true whether the person moves to Web 3.0 or Rumble. Each video appearing elsewhere has the potential to garner attention. That is time away from YouTube. This is no different than what happened to broadcast television and the hours of viewing that YouTube captured.
History repeating itself. The difference is the disruptor is now potentially the disrupted.
Once habits break and network effects start to appear elsewhere, things tend to snowball.
Fragmentation
Ultimately, my view is that we end up seeing fragmentation as the basis of the next generation Internet.
Web 3.0 is going to bring tribalism to the forefront, something that seems natural for humans. We are not going to be all on the same platforms as we saw with the silos that became commonplace on Web 2.0.
What this means is networks are going to offer their own content, with their own data. Creators are going to be drawn to certain communities based upon characteristics that align with what they seek. Compensation will be available in many different forms, something that is likely to factor in the decision of where to "set up shop".
networks are going to be abundant. There will be no moats in the digital world. That means people are free to move wherever they desire.
Of course, this looks problematic from the eyes of companies. We have to remember, these networks are not corporate owned. Through tokenization, the ownership is distributed among the coin holders. This could also be true of the digital platforms that are build on TOP of these networks.
The most successful networks are going to be those that offer the services that retain people. When people can switch without barriers, it is vital the community provide what other members need. Of course, this translates into opportunity for those who are paying attention.
In short, if the network is lacking in something, fill the void.
This fragmentation means that platforms like YouTube are going to decline unless they radically change. I fail to see how they can compete with the structure of Web 3.0. That said, there is still the opportunity for a decade or more of profitable activity if they cannibalize the other platforms.
Will YouTube do this? That is anyone's guess.
The challenge is that, as more people find new homes, they are facing a decline. This is a game that is played in minutes. Each time someone watches a video that is not on YouTube, that is another "paper cut".
In Conclusion
For now, YouTube is a powerful force.
One advantage it has is an enormous library of content that was uploaded over the last couple decades. This is similar to the position major movie studios find themselves in. The fact that a Warner Bros have almost 100 years worth of movies is something that has value in the marketplace.
However, as with that industry, we are seeing a massive shift. Technology companies are starting to enter the broadcasting realm, something that is having an effect.
Web 3.0 is the epitome of technology. There is nothing non-technical about it. This means that, as it expands, the ability to disrupt grows at an exponential pace. When we couple this with open source, the situation starts to compound.
At some point, it will be too much for even a behemoth like YouTube to fend off.
The times they are a-changin'.
Posted Using InLeo Alpha
At the very least, the narrative of censorship and not owning your content/channel/blog on web2 is being weakened by the virtues of web3. I am with you on the fragmentation. When Napster was at its height, I could discover SO much new and cutting edge music by sharing and browsing the folders of users. When it was taken down, the millions of users fragmented into various other platforms and this method of exploration was all but gone or headed to corporate pay to play.
It is ironic that google is battling against AI in the form of the huge SEO algorithm change and content filtering when youtube and google searches are a HUGE source of data for their own AI.
With every benefit, there is a draw back and vice versa. Looking forward to seeing the positive changes and momentum switching to web3. Hopefully we can make enough noise on platforms like @3speak and @inleo to attract a critical mass.
Disruptors often become the disrupted over time. It is the evolution of technology.
I am not sure how much the narrative is really penetrating although it could be. Most still do not care about censorship. Whatever is taking place, it does open the door to new opportunities. People changing their habits means newer players can emerge.
A mass exodus from YouTube in 2024? If this is true, this is great! People will search for an alternative.
An exodus of some of the content creators, not necessarily the overall traffic.
That's more of the writer's foresight for 2024.
It's been a while since I posted content on Youtube. I only use 3Speak as my video sharing platform. After reading your post it occurred to me that I could also put music videos dedicated to the songs I compose on 3Speak. Maybe that is something that is still missing on 3Speak if we compare it to Youtube. Youtube today can also be considered a music warehouse.
I would love to see a ton of music placed on 3speak. I would then incorporate it onto music on leo.
I think a WEB3 video platform, which supplies lifetime earnings as Youtube, would replaced Youtube.
Well, we could speculate this mass exodus from YouTube but I'm waiting to see it come real. I said so because I still observe slow response in attendance to web 3
Variety they say is the spice of life. One can not be king forever, so as other alternative with inclusive contents sprang up, the big guys will either restrategize or face extinction. Web3 is the way forward. Thanks for sharing this informative post.
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I have been seeing a shift lately to other places, but the masses are still on YouTube. I try to avoid it when I can because the AI videos are extremely annoying at this point, and that’s pretty much all it is other than in niche areas. Elon seems to be wanting to take it on as a video platform, but we’ll see. I am still mainly posting on 3speak and sharing that through my other outlets.
Elon, in my view, is going to garner most of Web 2. He is entering areas that will provide expanded services, something the other platforms are doing.
My guess is that X has a number of financial offerings by the end of next year. This is going to be more than just payments.
You do not see that with the likes of Reddit.
Agreed, unfortunately Twitter is still my Web2 choice even though I really can’t stand it, lol. 😂
When it comes to video, YouTube is still king and will be for a long time. I mean how many services do you see installed by default on every smart TV that is sold?
It’s going to be real hard to predict what happens from here with all of the insanity out there.
Yeah I am not claiming it is going anywhere soon. In fact, YouTube is my choice to disrupt the likes of Disney and traditional broadcasting. It is the streaming service of choice.
They are expanding outside the realm of social video and getting into the traditional game, same as Amazon albeit a different approach.
That opens the door for social video which, due to the drop in cost, can be done by many other players.
Oh for sure and that’s why I still post there, even though nobody watches, lol, but hey, you never know… Hell, nobody here watches my stuff either, lol, but that’s okay, haha, at least I still get likes, haha.
It is the true disruptor in the video and TV space.
I dont post on there since I want to keep feeding Web3 databases. It is imperative, in my view, to fill these up. My outlook is simply it all starts with data.
That is why activity on the chain is crucial. Elons database has a lot of people filling it. No need to give him or the Google boys any more than we have to.
I post here too, but when trying to grow a business outside of Hive, you have to cross post to the main channels. As much as it hurts.
YouTube shouldn't forget that there's always a way out even so with other platforms. So they should rethink because this might bring changes they didn't expect
Glad to see that finally people eyes are beginning to see that there should be awesome alternatives to YouTube and glad they are already coming up
It looks like the popularity of Web 3 is limited in the social world. As if it's only crypto affiliates who really make use of it. How can we make this run smoothly?
You tube simply cant compete with web3 models because the infrastructure is totally different, if we look at content monetization and the resources been handled and owned.
Anywhere the competition between tech giants are epic and I think you are right to the fact that when tiktok arrived and created short form videos, that started to pose a big hype and continued to a long time.
Now that when web3 would start to remodel, then there would be even greater race to have. That would be fun to see giants are competing with each other and we the general users are kind of the players and losers. Ha ha ha.
Youtube isnt going to lose to Web 3 in the near term. It will be to other Web 2 platforms.
I agree that there are a lot of noticeable cracks in Youtube lately. I have seen some videos discuss the growing difficulty of traversing the YT algorithm. There is definitely more videos, and it gets difficult for one's videos to get discovered unless they already have a following. On a similar note, RoosterTeeth just went down. They were popular back then, but lost viewership along the way. YT viewership seems to be very cutthroat, and AI is only making it more difficult.
I dont follow the viewership numbers close enough to notice shifts in trends. What I do not know content creators are starting to post elsewhere. This is the first crack in the damn.
Competition is always good. Since there are a lot more options. Choosing the platform that pays more, or works with the creator's demographic [FB for Asia], is now becoming important.
I certainly agree that the bots and AI generated content don't help the platform at all. It is inevitable that something will spring up and take advantage of the lapses. Web 3 certainly is poised for that
You tube was the upgraded version when it was first introduce, I can remember back then smaller number of people had knowing acquaintances of what a 'network' is. Now after decades time, Web3 came up and it now looks like old ways technology automation now could seem as decline.
As you said I think it is right in some case, the infrastructure You Tube already has can be switched to many other forms like broadcasting or making a storage base like wikimedia and transitioning the old technology into something trendy for people to engage and participate more.
Web3 also has its flaws but the thing is, its features are unique and thats the edge.
YouTube is really helping to create a nice standard and this is awesome to see. We hope that this continues actually and we tend to see more of this in Manifestation