Moore's Law For Everything
Over the last half decade, I wrote and talked about the Age of Abundance. This was derived from some basic technological components that were set in motion over the last few decades. It is most evident in the digital world where things accelerate rapidly.
We are at the point where this is expanding into the physical world. While the digital realm has a 40 year head start, the "world of atoms" is going to catch up quickly.
One of the key drivers is Moore's Law. This is basically an observation where the amount of compute available for the same price doubles every couple years. It is something that held true for most of the past half century.
This is also what enabled such massive technological progress.
Sam Altman: Moore's Law For Everything
Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAi, phrased this idea a bit differently. Nevertheless, it encompasses the same idea.
A few years ago, he wrote an article called Moore's Law For Everything. In it, he described technology's impact throughout history and what the AI revolution will do.
The deflationary nature of technology gets overlooked. This is due, in part, to where people focus their attention. When the price of housing and healthcare is going up, that is what makes the headlines.
If we are in a deflationary era, why does this happen?
There are a number of reasons. To start, we have governments and regulations involved. Some of this is naturally beneficial (and needed). But when the process becomes burdensome, often protecting incumbents who are nothing more than extractors. They are also not the ones who bring impactful innovations to the table.
The second point is wages. People want more money. They like to see the value of their assets go up. Few want to sell their house and bring a check to closing. Naturally, this is a higher price for the buyer. The same is true for other asset classes.
We want prices to go down except when we benefit from them going up. Unfortunately, it doesn't work like that.
Another issue is there are many areas, especially in the physical world, where technology hasn't made an impact. This is about to change.
Over time, we did see a number of areas, including in the physical, where digital trend hit.
In the last couple of decades, costs in the US for TVs, computers, and entertainment have dropped.
When we look at communications, music, and information, we see a massive change. This, of course, does not affect the cost of housing but we are seeing signs of how things are going to change.
AI: Penetrating All Industries
AI is going to penetrate all aspect of business. When it comes to products and services, it is only a matter of looking at the different layers to project the total effect.
AI will lower the cost of goods and services, because labor is the driving cost at many levels of the supply chain. If robots can build a house on land you already own from natural resources mined and refined onsite, using solar power, the cost of building that house is close to the cost to rent the robots. And if those robots are made by other robots, the cost to rent them will be much less than it was when humans made them.
Robotics, especially humanoids, are just gettting started. When Altman wrote this article, that was more of a projection. With the progress we see taking place, it is easy to envisions tens of millions rolling off the assembly line within a few years.
How will this alter the labor dynamic?
The same is true for AI. We can consider this the "brains" of the economy. It is here where the economic output tied to knowledge work explodes.
There are, however, real world impacts.
Let us look at real estate. This is something that most can identify with. It is also something that the headlines claims is exploding in price.
Certainly, this is true if we focus upon residential. Yet, the technological impact is being seen in the commercial sector.
Remote work became part of the terminology during the COVID lockdowns. This is a technological trend although it was stimulated by those decisions.
Since that time, major cities in the developed nations are confronting an office apocalypse. Occupancy rates are far below where they were in 2019. This is crushing valuation.
Here is a headline from the NY Times:
In 2006, the hulking office building at 135 West 50th Street in Midtown Manhattan sold for $332 million. Tenants occupied nearly every floor; offices were in demand; real estate was booming.
On Wednesday, it changed hands again, in an unusual online auction — for $8.5 million.
If this were an isolated incident, it would be one thing. It is, however, something that is happening in many major cities. Certainly there are other factors in play. The bottom line is that we can see how remote work is factoring into this.
Radical Change
If you are old enough, consider what life was like before digital.
Think about a time before smartphones. Personal computers. The Internet. Remember a time when photographs were taken using film, developed, then mails to people. Long distance phone charges were the norm. If you wanted to buy something, you went to a store unless you happened to use a mail order catalog.
The time I am referring to was only 40 years ago. The world was analog. Offices had filing cabinets. We were not far removed from copies being made with carbon paper and a typewriter. Invoices were received via mail and paid for with a check.
And if you wanted information about a product, it required getting a brochure.
We take for granted how much society changed in, relatively speaking, a spec of time in human history. This is going to be compressed even further in the next couple decades.
Altman obviously has insight that most of us do not. Whether one likes him or not, there is no denying his place in the industry. He is at the forefront of what is being developed.
This means we should pay attention to what he is saying. The pace of this advancement is stunning. We are seeing the amount of compute related to GPUs exploding. This is the engine that is driving a lot of this.
Robotics are the next phase. It is also the bridge between the digital and physical worlds. Again, this is not easy to see in the early stages. Nevertheless, if we consider what it is like when robotic production, especially humanoid, is scaled, it is mind blowing.
Economic productivity is going to skyrocket.
Altman sums it up as the Moore's Law for Everything. I call it the Age of Abundance.
Either way, the concept is the same.
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There is nothing more interesting to me in this article than the aspect where you highlights that AI penetrating all facets of business will bring down cost of production. We are seriously wipe by inflation, I think we need such a system in place.
My preference is your tag for it.
STOP THE ABUSE ON HIVE
FAKE HIVE POLICE
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HIVE IS ONE BIG FARM
!LOL !WEED !MEME !VSC !discovery 35 !GIF !BBH !ALIVE !DOOK !PGM !LUV !PIMP !LOLZ !BEER !PIZZA !DUO !HUG FOR !DOOK GINA @CRIMSONCLAD $BBH
https://hive.blog/hive-104387/@bpcvoter3/se19g2
Downvoted BY HIVE FARMERS
6 days ago in #life by slobberchops (81)$0.00
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[-]bpcvoter2 (-5)(1) 4 days ago · Will be hidden due to low rating
NO DOWNVOTES FOR MARKY MARK'S SELF VOTING !WEED
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https://peakd.com/hive-164833/@bilpcoinbpc/you-have-all-witnessed-this-account-being-downvoted-to-a-negative-reputation-for-no-reason
SHAME ON YOU ALL SAD PEOPLE WHO SCAM LIE AND FARM HIVE AND HIVERS
[-]acidyo (82) 3 months ago
Haha at "I shouldn't make commercial" :D Maybe something to worry about when you have more youtube subscribers! Quite interesting content though, these things should get more subs on there and here.
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[-]gogreenbuddy (67) 3 months ago
Yeah thought that was funny too
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https://hive.blog/life/@gogreenbuddy/i-had-to-give-up-on-my-gabion-fencing-too-much-work
@themarkymark @buildawhale @upmyvote @ipromote @gogreenbuddy @usainvote @punkteam @makerhacks @apeminingclub @leovoter @blockheadgamds @rollingbones farm @cwow2 @solominer @steevc @adm @abit @theycallmedan @dalz @abh12345
HE MAKES CURATION REWARDS WITH ALL HIS ALT ACCOUNTS BURNING TOKENS LIKE THIS DOES NOT TAKE OLD TOKENS IT MINTS NEW ONES AND BURNS THEM
https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@bilpcoinbpc/the-power
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https://www.bilpcoin.com/hive-167922/@bpcvoter1/response-4-to-themarkymark-marcus-buildawhale-usainvote-ipomote-leovoter-gogreenbuddy-and-over-100-of-his-alt-accounts
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cwow stop the drink and drugs
Stop supporting the fake Hive police who do nothing but exploit Hive
Many people on Hive will never get to spend any of their Hive as it may become illegal in certain countries
https://peakd.com/hive-158694/@bilpcoinbpc/marks-dream
Zac the man with the scam plan
lol the Marky mark keeps dreaming
GET HELP STOP CRYING
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Hello Marky, are you ok do you need help, are you facing mental health challenges?
It's crucial to seek help. Continual dishonesty can erode trust and your mental health. Downvotes do not have an impact on us, but our consistent sharing of accurate information is key to us.
Marky stop getting butt fucked LOL.
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[-]themarkymark (80) yesterday (edited)
Farming? Show me where I am farming, I post like one post a month at this point, and all buildawhale is burned. As you say transactions don’t lie. And don't say curation rewards, I'd get those no matter what I vote on and if you expect I will be the only person on this blockchain to forfeit curation rewards, you are dumber than we know you are.
https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@bpcvoter1/seq7ok
https://www.bilpcoin.com/undefined/@bpcvoter1/response-3-to-themarkymark-marcus-buildawhale-usainvote-ipomote-leovoter-gogreenbuddy-and-over-100-of-his-alt-accounts
https://hive.blog/hive-193084/@bpcvoter1/response-2-to-themarkymark-marcus-buildawhale-usainvote-ipomote-leovoter-gogreenbuddy-and-over-100-of-his-alt-accounts
!LOL !WEED !GIF !MEME
https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@themarkymark/re-bpcvoter1-sepr9c
21 hours ago in LeoFinance by themarkymark (80)
https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@bpcvoter1/senppv
https://hive.blog/life/@anomadsoul/re-gogreenbuddy-seqf1p
https://hive.blog/hive-104387/@bpcvoter3/se19g2
Downvoted BY HIVE FARMERS
https://hive.blog/life/@slobberchops/re-gogreenbuddy-sdr1wb
https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@themarkymark/re-bpcvoter1-setz65
Response 4 to themarkymark marcus, buildawhale usainvote ipomote leovoter gogreenbuddy, and over 100 of his alt accounts
Reply 2 to @eddiespino
Reply to @eddiespino
cwow stop the drink and drugs
Can't you see the problems on Hive?
Hive dropping to $0.000
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LOL
It seems like THEMARKYMARK is dealing with some personal drama and mental issues, which might be causing them to spam us and others with baby pics, GIFs, and questionable content he's been doing the same for years. The fun doesn't stop there, as this seems to be a recurring theme with multiple online personas. The real question is, do we want to trust these drama-magnets with our hard-earned funds or any significant influence on Hive?
On Hive a significant issue exists with automatic upvotes consistently rewarding the same individuals day in and day out
We want to address the issue of downvoting. It has caused pain to many people, and we want to make sure it doesn't happen again reply to @jacobtothe
On Hive a significant issue exists with automatic upvotes consistently rewarding the same individuals day in and day out
We hope that those who genuinely care about Hive will reconsider their actions, as continuing down this path could inadvertently harm innocent users who are unaware of these issues
lol the Marky mark keeps dreaming
Marks dream
https://www.publish0x.com/the-dark-side-of-hive/the-marky-mark-marcus-its-clear-youre-deeply-engaged-in-farm-xmjodol
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themarkymark (80)in FreeCompliments • 2 days ago
No.
I downvote spammers, you are a spammer, you get no monies. It’s very simple.
In the meantime go get some help. You obviously have some issues going on.
2 days ago in FreeCompliments by themarkymark (80)$0.00
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[-]bpcvoter1 (-4)(1) yesterday · Will be hidden due to low rating
GET HELP
$0.00Reply Edit
[-]themarkymark (80) 4 hours ago
I have a personal chef, maid, and a captain for my yacht. What other help do I need?
$0.00Reply
https://hive.blog/hive-140084/@themarkymark/re-bpcvoter1-sg5l3x
@gogreenbuddy THIS MAN IS A TOP HIVE FARMER AND SCAMMER SOME OF HIS OTHER ACCOUNTS @THEMARKYMARK @BUILDAWHALE @USAINVOTE @UPMYVOTE @LEOVOTER @IPROMOTE @PUNKTEAM @CWOW2 @STEMGEEKS AND 100s more
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SORRY! You don't have enough VSC to give. You must have at least 50 VSC in your wallet. If you wish to have VSC to reward your favorite authors, please go to: VSC MARKET
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More $ALIVE is available from Hive-Engine or Tribaldex, plus you can win Alive Power delegations in our daily chat on @alive.chat every day.
@bpcvoter3, sorry! You need more $BBH to use this command.
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I agree. It might not be a nice comparison, but just looking at Chinese made products, and we can see how lower labor costs affect the price. Since robots are more consistent, it is possible that they can offer higher quality products if they are trained well enough.