Edging the Hedge

That title sounds dirty.

Or, really boring if I was talking about gardening. But, I guess that most people realize it is about Bitcoin teasing a new all time high value, for the second time this year. It got to within a couple hundred dollars from a new high, before dropping back slightly to pluck up some courage, before it makes another run.

It doesn't really matter if it gets there though.

With the US election looming next week which will decide which of two bad options will be chosen to run a government so that no one is happy, I suspect there are traders looking to cash in on the uncertainty. Both candidates will likely inject more money into the economy financed via debt, and the smart money is going to be looking for safe harbors to park their wealth and use as a base of operations to take advantage of whatever follows. This is nothing new of course, which is why gold prices are up about 50% YoY too.

I am not sure when the alts will follow, but I don't fell like they are going to make a concerted effort on the back of this Bitcoin move. At least, not right away. There are a lot of people that are likely to FOMO or FOLO, but while there are gains to be made, there is also a lot of risk to get caught in the wrong position. Is the upside worth the risk?

Maybe with a trickle.

Sometimes I imagine what it might be like to go balls out and roll the dice, trading hard and winning. But, the fear of loss always brings me back to reality and tells me, that is not my way. There are stories of it working, but there is a survivorship bias, and the stories fail to mention all the others who tried the same, and lost. Sure, you have to be in it to win it, but being in doesn't mean a win by default.

One day. One day. One day.

This is what I keep telling myself. But, if and when that day comes, what then? There is what I think I'll do, but that isn't necessarily what I would do. We often have a feeling about what we would do in a particular set of conditions, but it seems more often than not, our future actions don't align with our present predictions on how we will act. It is a bit like a soldier geared up for war, only to fall apart once in battle. We might watch this kind of thing in a movie and see them as a coward, but we ourselves have probably not been in a similar situation, so how do we know how we will act if we were?

I have never been wealthy. Have you?

I have been around wealthy people of the type that have a garage full of exotic cars and luxury holiday homes. People who have sold their businesses for tens and even hundreds of millions. People who have have both inherited and those who have also made extreme wealth. But, they all behave a bit differently, where some are the type of people you might want to spend a lot of time with, and some are the type of people you will try to get as far away from as possible. The lie that most people tell themselves though is;

Money won't change me.

It is bullshit. Money is a bit like alcohol - in some people it makes their personality happier, louder, more outgoing; while in others it can make them withdrawn, depressed, angry and violent. but, everyone is affected in some way, because the conditions have changed and changed environments bring out alternate behaviors. We have a lot of better and worse alternative behaviors within us, we just need the conditions to be right for them to present themselves.

I don't know how I would act if wealthy, but I like to think that it wouldn't be too different than I am now. Maybe it would be like when i am drinking, because I am the type that gets happier, and more outgoing - but never sloppy. Would money make me happier?

Yes.

But my reasoning for that can wait for another day.
Perhaps when there is an ATH on HIVE.

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]