Iran , Israel And Oil

Lately, some of the most important news and events seem to occur over the weekend. This was also true regarding the death of Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah. It goes without saying that this is significant news, likely to cause further turmoil in the Middle East.

Why should anyone care about this? Could it affect us? Nasrallah was not just any leader—he was the face of Hezbollah, one of the most powerful and dangerous organizations in the Middle East. Under his leadership for over 30 years, Hezbollah became a formidable military and political power, heavily supported by Iran. So, is Hezbollah finished now that Nasrallah is gone?

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu provides the answer: no, Hezbollah is not finished. This organization has deep roots, and while Nasrallah's death is a major blow, it’s not enough to dismantle Hezbollah.

What happens next? Will things calm down, or will they get worse? you might ask. This is where things get tricky. On one hand, Nasrallah’s death leaves a significant void in Lebanon’s Shia community, which has depended on him for decades. This could lead to increased political instability, especially since Lebanon is already grappling with a weak government and internal problems.

On the other hand, U.S. President Joe Biden commented that Nasrallah’s death was an act of justice for his thousands of victims. At the same time, however, he called for de-escalation in the Middle East, pushing for a truce and, above all, the release of hostages in Gaza.

But the big question that remains: Will the situation escalate into a larger war? Will Iran get directly involved? No one knows for sure. The Middle East is in an incredibly fragile state right now. We could be heading for more conflict, or perhaps this is an opportunity for peace. What’s certain is that the coming weeks and months will be critical for the region’s future.

The biggest question—the X factor—is how Iran will respond to all of this. Will it engage in direct conflict with Israel, or will it act through proxies? The new Iranian president seems keen on easing the sanctions imposed on Iran while continuing the country’s nuclear program. It’s clear that Israel may be attempting to provoke Iran into a conflict, which could force the U.S. into a war with Iran.

How does this affect us as investors? Geopolitical tensions always impact the markets because uncertainty and fear are the worst enemies of investing. Investing thrives on optimism, but in the Middle East, hope has all but dried up.

Oil seems to bouncing on a strong support, when tensions arise the price normally rises too but at the same time October and November are bad months for oil prices.

At this point, many of us are expecting something bad to happen, and it seems that the only event that could truly shake things up is an open war between Iran and Israel. Such a conflict would undoubtedly have severe repercussions, not just in the region, but globally. Both Iran and Israel possess nuclear weapons, and the hate between them is so deep that the risk of an "accident" is very real.

Posted Using InLeo Alpha