Feel The Fomo
The cryptocurrency market rally that began in mid-October continues with minimal signs of slowing down. Observing the market's response to weakness and retracements reveals strong buying activity, swiftly lifting prices and mitigating losses. Initially, I anticipated a correction, possibly testing $33,500 before surpassing $42,000. However, after a consolidation phase between $36,000 and $38,000 lasting approximately 19 days, the market broke higher, reaching $42,000.
While the prevailing sentiment seemed geared towards hitting $42,000, I believed it was time for a correction and a more substantial consolidation. This is not indicative of a bearish stance, but rather a recognition of the importance of establishing a robust support level for the impending bullish market. Despite the current appearance of a bull run, I consider it more of a price surge than a sustained bull market.
What intrigues me the most is the similarity between the current price action and that of late 2020. During that period, after the halving and amidst significant money printing, prices rose parabolically with minimal corrections. Social media was abuzz with predictions of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 or even $500,000 in the next five years. The euphoric sentiment was expected due to rising inflation, zero interest rates, and substantial gains in both Bitcoin (3x) and altcoins (10x, 100x, 1000x).
However, the current landscape is different. The halving is months away, interest rates are high, risk appetite is lower, and money printing is not as rampant. The current narrative revolves around the Bitcoin Spot ETF, with BlackRock being likened to a money-printing machine. The pervasive FOMO has created a scenario where investors buy on any minor retracement, fearing that selling might cause them to miss out on potential gains once the Spot ETF is approved.
In my opinion, this approach might be flawed. Once the ETF narrative concludes, regardless of the outcome, a significant dump could ensue as profit-taking becomes widespread. The shift from rumors and expectations to actual news could lead to a lack of buyers, especially as the new narrative, whether FOMO or FUD, takes precedence.
While I anticipate further upward movement, possibly reaching $48,000 or even touching $50,000 until the ETF resolutions around January 10, I also foresee the potential for one more minor pump followed by a substantial correction. However, only time will reveal the true trajectory, and I am preparing for various scenarios.
Are you??
Posted Using InLeo Alpha
https://inleo.io/threads/steemychicken1/re-steemychicken1-2mvttnp6v
The rewards earned on this comment will go directly to the people ( steemychicken1 ) sharing the post on LeoThreads,LikeTu,dBuzz.
That is my worry as well. We keep a nice pump and then a nice dump correction. There is a lot of FOMO out there right now and people are jumping in, we'll see how it plays out, I'll probably take some profits along the way to buy back in if there is a big correction.
Yes taking profit is always the best strategy because you have them locked whatever happens !
No😆 I don't understand it at all. Every time I've tried to 'play' in any kind of money market/investment I've lost. It is all beyond me. I am a passenger on a ship and don't know where it's going. So far, I have managed to survive by accepting my lack of financial sophistication.
You sound like you know what's happening, though😇
Well most of the times when you stick to basics it turns out to have a better return.
The ETFs will need "physical Bitcoin" thus the demand will be there...
That does not mean though that BTC will go parabolic as of January until 2025 or something like that.
I wouldn't be amazed to see BTC correcting to as low as $30,000 before the halving just to continue its uptrend after the halving.
This bull market will be more aggressive and shorter lived than the previous ones imo.
The risk appetite will grow once SPX breaks into new ATHs. The markets have anticipated the cuts in interest rates coming next year.
I don't believe BTC will get anything near 500,000 this cycle but I would bet on $150,000 as an ATH.
Yes indeed but the demand will come if the clients will want to buy. They could buy some in order to profit later but still an etf is just the middle man they buy according to the demand they have. From what Powell is saying he doesn’t expect to lower interest rates in 2024 but left a window open for one more rate hike if needed. So taking that into account I also believe a shorter bull run.
The demand will be. Dollars are clearly no longer a hedge. I will stay more cautious this bull market though and secure profits as we move up. I'm all in alts though, no bitcorn for me.