Everything is based on results: The analysis of events

I have always considered myself as someone very pragmatic and rational; and based on them, I always analyze everything that happens to me trying to visualize all possible angles, trying to see the pros and cons of everything, and that's is something very important.

We must be very careful when we analyze the events

And also, you have to be very careful when we explain them to someone else, because if we don't do it well, there may be incorrect interpretations.

It happened to me these days ago that I took my aunt to see a new cardiologist, and after checking her out a bit and asking her some questions, he sent her to do some specific tests; and he also sent me to collect all the old cardiological tests from her that we had at home so that I could take them to him in the next consultation, in order to be able to put together a more complete medical history.

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After a few weeks, my aunt and I went to the cardiologist again; she had already done her tests and I brought to him the tests that he had requested.

After reviewing the exams (both old and new) and recording them on her laptop; the doctor told me that she had a little heart problem; he told me that a few years ago, she had a heart rhythm that consisted of two good beats and two bad beats. But in reality, the way she explained it to me was not accurate, nor was it exactly what he was trying to say, because he told me that for every two good heartbeats, my aunt experienced two bad heartbeats...

The worst was when he later told me that her heart rate now consisted of one bad beat for every two good beats... Tell me what would you have understood in such a case? I had to ask him again, because the impression he gave me was that he was telling me that she had suffered for years from a heart rhythm that had 50% bad beats and 50% good beats; while now, she had a heart rate consistent with one bad beat for every two good... In short, it was understood that she had improved a little lately, in relation to the heart rate she had a few years ago.

Because by putting it that way, the doctor was giving me to understand that a few years ago my aunt's heart failed 50% of the time, and instead now, it only failed one out of three times, that is, barely one 33.33% by the way of the time (or one third of the time).

The doctor immediately realized what I was interpreting based on what he was telling me, and then he corrected, and told me that both good and irregular heartbeats were random or isolated, and furthermore, he presented the results in a rule of three. Based on what he explained to me, I realized that even though my aunt's heart was failing, the issue was not that serious, because it only failed less than 10% of the time (barely 8.73% of the time), which logically meant that for every 10 good beats, just under 1% of the time, my aunt's heart was having an irregular beat.

The issue of interpretation in economic issues

It is very important, then, to know how we analyze events, but also how we present or explain them to others, so that they can exactly understand reality and there is no room for misinterpretations.

This is important in any sphere in which we can imagine ourselves, especially in the economic field. Let's imagine for a moment the president or finance minister of a country, trying to explain the annual economic figures to the country; and we will realize how vital it is to know how to express ourselves and explain ourselves well in terms of figures and results.

Because a bad explanation can make the public interpret the situation incorrectly, thinking that things are better or worse than they really are.

This is what happens when people hear or read bad things about cryptocurrency on social media. The FUD is based on bad intentions and on attempts to speculate on the markets, you have to know that very well. And most people often make the mistake of listening or reading any quack, without analyzing the source from which they are getting the supposed information.

When I analyze situations and events, I first find out about it, and I try to do it well, looking for reliable sources that present me with truthful information. Later, in addition to what has been said, I analyze the events and situations based on figures, in a percentage and analytical way. For example, if a cryptocurrency is falling or is at risk of falling, based on measurable patterns, I calculate the factors that can cause the problem; Based on this, I measure the percentage of failure and make projections.

What I do may sound common or simple, but relying on technical indicators and my knowledge of fundamental factors, I am able to make better projections than I could do based on someone else's opinions, and that, that analytical capacity; is something that is worth gold and that we should try to always have.

Although the analysis of situations, carried out in this way, is not devoid of possible errors, misinterpretations are much less likely to occur than in cases in which the sources of information are not taken care of and objective measurements are not made.

The same thing happens when we see someone giving us lectures in a positive or negative way about some cryptocurrency, project, currency, commodity, action, or about the situation of a country or region; In other words, we must be careful in such cases, because not everything is what it seems; and depending on how well or badly we interpret things, it will be our way of acting in the scenarios or markets respectively.

A misinterpretation regarding a company can make someone sell all of its shares at a time when their prices were about to skyrocket, and vice versa, it can make you buy shares in a company that was about to go bankrupt...

That is why I am so careful about all this that I mention to you, and in fact, when I hear something about anything, I interpret the source from which I am hearing it, that is, is it a reliable medium? if it is so; How reliable is it?... If it is a person who says something about a company or project or whatever, then I wonder who is this person? It is an authority on what he is talking about? Can, that person, have something that prompts you to speak for or against what is speaking without necessarily being true? If so, what could it be? And even more important, I wonder if what that person is saying can be considered important information or just her personal opinion about something; because there is a big difference between opinion and information.

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One of the biggest mistakes that people always make in the markets is to hopelessly confuse opinions with information, when they are clearly two different things. Because while information gives us grounds to interpret things properly, opinion does not give any grounds for any security, it is simply what a person thinks based on their own observations, under the filter of their own gaze, and they are their own personal conclusions.

The analysis of events must always be done from our own perspective, from our own understanding, and that is why we must prepare ourselves, and study more every day to learn to have the necessary discernment so that we acquire the habit of always doing it.

In the end, the results will prove us right, because they are the ones who always give and take away the reason in the markets. Let's always keep it in mind. How right or wrong the measures we take based on a goal are, we will always know for sure, through the analysis of the results we are getting in this regard. Simple as that.

What do you think about the topic discussed? Please comment.

_{Gif created by @piensocrates}