German Bundesliga Kick Tipp - My MatchDay 11 Status
After finishing mid-way through the league last season, this year I have gotten off to a better start climbing into the top 5 of the table at this stage of the game. This keeps me with a chance of catching the runaway trailblazing leader Jacki01 and in hot pursuit of Reiseamateur.
This season I was able to execute my strategy more accurately and hopefully this has shown with better results. Back in my football betting days, the Bundesliga was quite good with its many quirks when you could try and etch out a few €'s with some not-so-common betting strategies.
This time I am trying to use the law of averages on my side to help propel me to KickTipp champion status, but it is not a given thing due to some matches being too close to call and unlike with actually betting the odds, you can only gain so much of a statistical advantage with a so to say 50/50 outcome. Knowing the teams, their form and how well they play can also play a crucial factor.
League Status
Match Day 11 is not quite over yet, but I am 71 points behind jaki01 and 34 behind Reiseamateur in 2nd place. It has been quite an exciting season and it is good to check over how well my predictions have done. The Premier Fantasy Football game has gotten too complicated and takes too much time now which has sucked the fun out of it. Kick Tipp is just a nice and simple score prediction game and it is cool we have it on Hive.
Betting Talk
Normally in the Bundesliga, there is a huge betting bias that Bayern should pretty much win every game, especially the home ones. Maybe only the top 4 the odds might become more favorable. You could see it as an easy way to get some money, albeit very little or a great way to win alot if you bet against them.
However, so far this season they haven't lost any games, but they have drawn 2. So even if you can get some above the odds money on, it could be hard to etch a profit out of them.
An unpopular bet is the draw, and this has been a favorite betting strategy of mine in the past and I would do more if my bookies account weren't suspended and it was easier to get good odds on. If you look at Bayern with 2 draws in the last 11 matches, usually they have quite good odds on the draw too, say like 4.6 against Dortmund, or higher against weaker teams. At a €2 even bet, you would outlay 22 Euro and get back 18.4 Euro with 2 draws paying at 4.6, so still not profitable yet so far this season - perhaps if you can get better odds on the exchange, it could be a slight advantage in there somewhere.
I have entered my predictions for the next week and fingers crossed I can close down the gap a little. I haven't had much time to catch any games this season so far, but hopefully will get to watch a couple soon enough.
Thanks for reading.
Credits:
Title image created with image from source
Kick Tipp images from source
Let's connect : mypathtofire
Initially I was wondering how you played the matches.
Then the batting😂😂
Okay now I know.
Nice one.
Best wishes.
😅 yes just a prediction game :)))
Yes, I get it😂
More wins to you.
That's cool! I honestly don't know much about the sport except from when I played as a kid. It reminds me a lot of fantasy football we have here. Awesome!
Thanks its pretty cool and some amazing prizes by the sponsors too!
Interesting to observe how the 'clash' of different betting strategies will turn out. :)
Of course with betting on favourites one will win more often, but in my opinion the real 'art' ist to find out which odds offer the highest value in relation to the probability of the chosen outcome.
If I for example know that the probability of the number "6" when rolling the dice is 1/6, then the fair odds a bookmaker should offer for that outcome should be 6.0 (of which of course he would subtract a certain percentage as bookmaker margin).
As soon as any sportsbook would offer for example odds of 6.5 for the appearance of a "6" I would immediately play that bet even if the probability to win would still be 1/6. Statistically I should then still lose five times out of six, but with the sixth bet I would win more than I paid for all five losses together (with an assumed stake of 1 Euro for each of the six bets I would statistically lose five times 1 euro before I once would win 5.5 euros, resulting in a plus of 50 cents every six bets in average).
I wish you good luck and am looking forward to see the results of the coming match days. :-)
I really enjoy watching the different betting strategies play out and seeking out value. I have tried favorites and really wide odds and yeah you can't beat seeing those long odds ones come in. When you win a 100-1 bet, should you then skip betting for a while as the odds of winning another 100-1 so quickly are quite long?! lol
It is also amazing to see how often you might go without getting a 6 even though it should be one in 6. Somehow there is something magical about statistics and probability.
Congrats on your first place, you are really crushing it at the top and I wish you a good success for the rest of the season, it has been a fun one so far! 😀
As you also know, winning a certain bet (even if probability might have been very low) doesn't influence the probabilities of the winning chances of the following bets. :-)
Yes, if the sample of bets is not big enough then 'strange' things might happen. :)
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