The Russian Recession: An unforeseen cause

The Russian Recession: An unforeseen cause

We're just over 12 months in the Russia Vs Ukraine war and in what Russia thought would be a quick march to the nations capital and an easy victory has proven that wars in today's day and age with high level tech are no longer easy to predict.

It's further proof that might and power alone will no longer work in battles as they did 50 - 60 years ago even just a decade ago with Gorilla warfare preventing wars being won in Afghanistan and Syria, again we are seeing a new form of barriers to victory for those who launch full scale attacks.

Trade Sanction approach, did it fail?

The first move the EU and US made against Russia were trade sanctions which have not done much to impact Russian finances. In fact as reported above in many cases it had the opposite effect as rising energy costs increased Russian coffers pockets and full blow military manufacturing created jobs and boosted the Russian economy.

The sanctions were also limited in capacity because any bans on oil and vital supports that the rest of the world relies on would impact both sides of the war. I mean, no one wants to buy of Australia who is rich in resources....

Further evidence that war in todays capitalist world is about as smart as pouring water into your V8 supercar fuel tank and wondering why it's not working.

Workforce, Conscription and lack of growth

So here it is, the end is finally in sight for this war and it isn't going to be won by force or surrender, once again it will be brought to its knees by the people. The funniest thing is that the people don't actually need to do anything other than continue to live their lives.

Russia decided to conscript a large amount of troops into the war and have continued to do so, a large portion estimated to be around 194,000 Russians have fled to avoid conscription but numbers are most likely higher.

With Russian forces already conscripting around 1 to 1.5% of their eligible population they're looking to increase these numbers to 500,000.

Economic Impacts

While smaller retailers and mum and dad businesses have already felt the pinch causing many to close their doors, only now are major corporations starting to reduce their operations simply because the workforce, household incomes and industry is fast drying up.

Russian companies Froze, and Severstal have scaled back productions while the The City of St. Petersburg has had to cut 25 Billion rubles of investment in it's new subway. Budget support has already been forecast to reduce.

So while bombs drop on Ukraine destroying buildings and shops, each bomb dropped is also destroying local shops in Russia and causing entire cities to crumble without a single shot.

Those same businesses can not prevent their staff from being drafted to the war which has had an immediate impact on local incomes and services. Advertising is crumbling as there is not as many people to advertise to.

While 2023 will continue to see a war perhaps decreased, by 2024 Russia may be forced to cease or it won't have a Russia.

Tech and Capitalism Speed up wars

This is a far different picture of war the last time a superpower went head to head many wars of the past went for years and no doubt a large contributing factor would have been the technology of the time.

In today's day and age we move with rapid speed across distance's and while a 5 year war sounds long it probably would have taken that length of time to travel from one position to the other. Doing so blindly without radar. Now movements are more rapid and costs are far more than previously.

The decision to continue this war will come down to Russian's making a decision to sacrifice their nation's economy and thrust itself into a 3rd world country for the sake of Putin's beliefs, or just go home and argue around pool tables and bars of years of the past and who owns what in a world that is owned by no one.

War, all sides lose in it.

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