Ashleigh Vandenberg Leading Strong in Jackwood Ward Campaign

It was a beautiful spring day yesterday in Melbourne as the ballots began to be counted for the local government elections which my partner as been campaigning in. Her core focus is community issues and driving reform for the people and brining politics back to the community.

Her campaign saw her go head to head with another current sitting councillor as they battled it out for who will take the top spot. With only one victor for the seat we tally the numbers and provide the most likely outcome.

Ashleigh Vandenberg’s campaign for re-election in the Jackwood Ward has proven to be a resounding success, with initial poll results showing a commanding lead over her competitors. Her dedication to addressing key community issues and engaging with residents has clearly resonated, as indicated by the numbers coming in. With a clear edge over her main opponent, Cr Goran Kesic, Ashleigh’s supporters can be optimistic about the potential for a victory, especially when looking at how preference votes are likely to flow.

Here’s a breakdown of the current vote tally in Jackwood Ward:

Ashleigh Vandenberg: 3,585 votes
Goran Kesic: 2,257 votes
Melanie Jones: 1,195 votes
Satinder Singh: 331 votes
Lokesh Makkar: 405 votes
Wally Harpreet: 295 votes
Jasmeet Singh Pannu: 536 votes
Mandip Singh: 628 votes

These results reflect Ashleigh’s strong position, as she leads with 3,585 votes—over 1,300 votes ahead of Cr Goran Kesic. To win, a candidate needs more than 51% of the final counted votes. Let’s look at how Ashleigh’s current lead translates in terms of voter support and potential outcomes through preference distributions.

The Preference Flow Impact

In an election where no candidate achieves a majority outright, the preferences of lower-ranked candidates are distributed until one candidate surpasses the 51% threshold. Given the breakdown above, Ashleigh’s lead places her in a favorable position, especially when factoring in likely preference flows from other candidates.

The total number of votes cast in the Jackwood Ward so far is 9,232. For Ashleigh to secure victory, she needs to achieve 4,708 votes or more through either direct votes or preference flows. Based on the current standings, Ashleigh’s current tally of 3,585 votes accounts for approximately 38.8% of total votes.

If the second-preference votes from other candidates primarily favor Ashleigh, she would likely accumulate the necessary percentage to clinch victory. Here’s how preferences could contribute based on likely voter tendencies:

Cr Goran Kesic, with 2,257 votes, will aim to draw significant preferences from other candidates, but Ashleigh’s lead places a high hurdle.
Melanie Jones, with 1,195 votes, could potentially contribute to either major candidate’s totals, but Ashleigh’s community focus and accessibility make her a likely recipient of these preferences.
Other minor candidates (totaling 2,195 votes) may provide a slight boost in preferences due to Ashleigh’s focus on inclusive policies and neighborhood improvements, which align with these voters' community-oriented values.
Predicting Ashleigh’s Likelihood of Victory
To reach the victory threshold of 51%, Ashleigh needs approximately 1,123 additional votes from preferences if we assume the current totals remain steady. Here’s how preference flows from smaller candidates could support her lead:

Expected Support from Minor Candidates: With a total of 2,195 votes among minor candidates, Ashleigh is well-positioned to capture a fair share of these preferences, especially as her policies have closely addressed local issues like waste management, youth programs, and community safety—topics that resonate with voters supporting these candidates.

Likely Advantage over Cr Goran Kesic: Given Ashleigh’s significant lead, even a partial preference flow from other candidates would strengthen her standing, likely pushing her above the required threshold.

Given these projections, Ashleigh is on track for a likely victory. Even with Cr Goran Kesic’s support base, the numbers suggest that Ashleigh’s strong showing combined with favourable preference flows will make it difficult for any other candidate to close the gap.

Community Support: The Backbone of Ashleigh’s Campaign

Ashleigh’s lead in the polls reflects the trust she has built within the Jackwood Ward. Throughout her campaign, she has been deeply involved in community issues, going door-to-door to listen to residents and understand their concerns firsthand. From tackling illegal rubbish dumping to initiating youth outreach programs, Ashleigh’s proactive approach to problem-solving has made her a champion for the community. She has continually shown up for her constituents, and this commitment is clearly paying off.

Her lead in the polls is not merely a numbers game—it is a testament to the community rallying behind someone who has consistently listened, advocated, and acted on their behalf. Residents see her as a voice for their concerns and a doer who can turn plans into action. This level of dedication and accountability has been crucial in her campaign, fostering a groundswell of support.

Likely Outcome

As the final preferences come in, Jackwood Ward residents and Ashleigh’s supporters eagerly await the results. If the numbers continue to hold as projected, Ashleigh Vandenberg is poised to claim a well-deserved victory, reaffirming her commitment to her community and continuing her work to make Jackwood Ward a better place for all.

For now, the numbers show that the people have rallied behind her with confidence. Ashleigh’s dedication to her community’s needs, her hands-on approach, and her ability to address issues head-on make her a standout candidate, and the poll numbers underscore just how much her work is valued in Jackwood Ward.

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