Bear Market? My Thesis Hasn't Changed!

Friends and family often ask me:

I noticed Bitcoin is way down, are you okay?

My response followed by blank stares:

Fuck yes I'm okay. My thesis hasn't changed. Being 'down' is a gift when you accumulate, and don't simply trade.

This is the beauty of dollar-cost-averaging. It forces you to have a low time preference and to focus on where the ball is going, not where the ball is or has been. This goes for Bitcoin and just about everything else. As what I consider a digital macro asset, it's pretty easy to see where that ball is going. We continue to gain regulatory clarity, nation state adoption, etc. When the price is high, I focus on building and capital allocation. When the price is low, I look to get more aggressive and dig up whatever capital I can find to buy more. For example, I may have some USDC sitting on a CeFi platform earning 8% when Bitcoin is looking expensive. When Bitcoin starts looking cheap I'll look to trade that same USDC into Bitcoin. Rinse and repeat. I kind of look at smaller projects like Hive and Splinterlands the same way, and while the risk/reward for the smaller stuff can be better for small projects, they are what I would consider productive digital assets, not a store of wealth. When I say productive, I mean they offer a return in the form of staking, rentals, etc. While I do have some of my Bitcoin earning me yield and being somewhat productive, the risk return over time is becoming less and less favorable. Because of this, I look to continue to reduce any BTC I have in custody.

If you are using USD as your unit of account, the drawdowns of digital assets like Bitcoin can be painful. This is why I try to use Bitcoin as my unit of account whenever possible, though it can be very hard from a psychological standpoint. This is why I don't use leverage and or my rent money. What's reassuring is that my Bitcoin number always increments in an upward direction, and it will continue to do so unless I am faced with some sort of life emergency.

In times like this, you wonder how many people read tweets like this and smash the sell button?

Go ahead and wait for 11k, I dare you!

Anyways, I agree with Kiyosaki more than Schiff, even though Robert appears to be drunk most of the time. I just think trying to call tops and bottoms in Bitcoin is a fool's errand. Bitcoin seems to always defy the prognosticators.

How about this for a headline?

Buy the dip, or wait for max pain? Analysts debate whether Bitcoin price has bottomed (src)

Screw the analysts! Somehow they always manage to be wrong!

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