Price Predictions: Are They More Fun Than Realistic?
The level of market predictions has dropped slightly, particularly since the rhetorical question "is the bull run over" began to trend. However, I believe we need to see another upward push to around 68k before the predictions resume. One thing that happened in this cycle was that the BTC ATH occurred before the halving, which altered the normal expectations.
However, there was no BTC spot ETF in previous cycles, so the price increase could simply be a premature rise in price that we expected to see later in the year, perhaps in Q3 or Q4, but maybe not. Does the ETF imply that the BTC price may rise higher at the peak? Nobody knows. However, I do not believe BTC will rise any higher than expected due to the ETF; I also do not believe much will change because we saw the ATH prior to the halving.
Just as predicted, the price is falling following the halving event; however, there are other factors to consider, such as Greyscale selling a large portion of their BTC holdings, most likely taking an early profit and dumping cheaper BTC on the market. I hear they own about 3% of BTC before selling, but the good news is that BTC will not be on the market for long.
Overall, I find price predictions entertaining.
Sometimes it simply relieves the anxiety and uncertainty of when things will happen. Sometimes it simply helps people plan, while for others, it provides hope for what is to come. Even people who do not own BTC do this because the future of the alts is dependent on how well or poorly BTC performs. Because altcoins have not performed particularly well, some people have been conservative in their price predictions.
In general, only Bitcoin receives positive price predictions because people believe that only what has moved has the potential to move further. However, human logic is not always correct when it comes to cryptocurrency. There are projects that you never expect to move forward, and then they appear out of nowhere. I have seen this happen with fringe project coins like PRE and DTC. Simply put, the market is the Wild Wild West.
So, I believe that up to 90% of people will make incorrect predictions; no one believes they will be completely correct. No one in cryptocurrency currently does not have a price target. This is because most people are attempting to be realistic, while others are simply trying their luck. Whether you want to be realistic or lucky with your prediction, there must have been a point in the market when you decided to take a stand and make a prediction. So, while making predictions for fun is normal at first, it gradually shifts to making predictions for solid planning.
Crazy Predictions Are For Fun
People make crazy predictions for fun, then make more realistic predictions when they need to plan. There are people who predict prices and hope they are incorrect. It is like saying coin X will never see $1 for various reasons, and they secretly hope they are wrong. Their first prediction helps them prepare for the worst, but they also hope for a better outcome than they had anticipated.
More Altruistic Predictions Are For Planning
Some people make bogus predictions in the hopes that they will come true, but they know it is impossible. It is equivalent to predicting that BTC will reach $400k at the peak of the bull market, when in reality, this will be difficult. People who hope to be wrong and those who are certain they will be wrong but hope to be correct. In the end, it is all about fun, hope, anxiety, expectations, and FOMO.
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I have realized that the market can be crazy, and anything can happen. No matter how well you study the market, you can still miss the prediction. That is why it is advisable to always stick to a plan, and even if the market doesn't reach your predicted price, you will still be good.
Exactly, predictions are mostly for fun and guides, everyone does it, it's how people tend to keep abreast. I do these analyses once in a while with how people are reacting to the market. Thank you for dropping by.
Hmm
You gave some awesome explanations here. So it’s possible that the early rise of BTC due to the halving which was coming earlier triggered the price to go up
Anyhow it is, we need to get a new ATH
It's a theory I have, it might not be the case but it's possible
I try to stay away from anything price related but I do check from time to time, in my case my actual goal is 2028 and thats when I would expect price to do something significant for me, rather than trying to predict how high it might go I try to protect my entry price, I would never be able to buy the best price possible but spreading my purchase in multiple over time helps to protect my entry price, there are great traders out there but the reality is that anyone and most could be wrong about whats going to happen next, just the strategy that I try to keep 👍🤙
2028 is a good goal for you. That's probably a year before the bull market of 2029, I reckon that a lot of weak hands might have left the market by then. Of course the more the better, and it's a good plan and I hope everything works out for you for your plans.
The price is obsessive, sometimes we just can't do without checking it..
Things are going on as they are, we just need to be patient and it's only a matter of time before we see a huge rise in prices.
It's hard to predict price but I still think that we will be down lower for a while. It just doesn't make sense for it to pump up directly after the halving until they take out the weak hands.
It's crazy that BTC climbed that high so fast without the alts following and like you've said, we can't just go up like that and it might have to take some time.
I am hoping that as I read more and more of your posts, I will get to know more about cryptocurrency.