Is the crypto market cycle changing completely?
It is October 21st, and there are about 10 days left in the month. If anything, I am glad the month is almost over. Why? October has not quite lived up to expectations. However, do not FUD just yet; October has done its thing, and BTC has moved from around 64k to 69k since the beginning of the month, and it is currently hovering around 66k, (just dumped) which is not entirely bad.
I believe UPtober was overestimated, but in all honesty, it did what it was supposed to do; we simply overestimated how much of a pump we might have this time around.
The UPtober Expectation
Talking about expectations, we all thought
that there would be a resemblance to what happened in the previous cycle, but if there is one thing this cycle has taught us going forward, it is that the subsequent market cycle will be dynamic and will not exactly resemble past events.
Future events will most likely delay or accelerate market phenomena, which I believe does not preclude the possibility of a bull or bear market; rather, it simply means that things will no longer be the same. October has almost always been a bullish month, but this time is different, and I will explain why.
First and foremost, this cycle has demonstrated that things are no longer the same; if people had taken profits in 2017 and 2021, we might not have noticed the difference in this cycle, but events are beginning to determine the timing of some specific trends in this current cycle. It is not entirely a bad thing.
A time will come when alts will no longer be dependent on the movement of BTC; this could happen in 50 to 100 years, but I do not believe we have enough adoption to do so right now.
The disparity in the timing of market events is evidence that crypto will not always follow the four-year cycle, and there will be a gradual shift in how the cycles may appear. I do not want to believe that things like the US elections, Fed rates, or the Middle East war are the reason we are still lagging; we had COVID in 2020, but the bull run happened.
Market Dynamism
In my opinion, what is currently happening is that the cycle is experiencing market dynamism. This is why people are so scared. The cycle has failed to resemble the last one, causing most people to panic. I simply believe that it is normal for people to be in a state of uncertainty when the bull is approaching, and that this has occurred in every cycle.
The ETF is one major event that has made this cycle dynamic, and if you think spot ETFs have a small impact, check the money flowing in and out; you will be amazed. The market changes when money flows in and out; timing is irrelevant; it is money that matters. However, we are only having this conversation because the alts have failed to move.
BTC all day long
BTC is performing admirably, and if you bought a year ago, you are likely making a good profit, and now is probably the time to reinvest some of that money in alts. ETH is proof that alts have not been doing well; because it is the alpha alt, we mostly look at its movement to determine the alts' true positions.
However, Eth has finally moved in the last few days, which I believe is a good thing. BTC's crab walk is one step backwards and two steps forward; we have not had "up up up up"; instead, we have had "up up, down, up up down"; the former indicates a full-fledged bull market, while the latter is typical of a uptober. So I believe eth moving is beneficial.
It is been completely flat for a long time, and I believe October is mostly over. In my opinion, November should be completely bullish, but we have yet to see what the market has in store for the rest of the month. So, everyone should try to get through the end of the year while staying ready for Q1 2025.
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October may not have been an Uptober, but this time around things are acting very differently. Hopefully we will see things break out of this sideways action in BTC and push up. Alts may yet have a nice season, keeping my fingers crossed!
Just as I was finishing the post, BTC dumped from 68k to 66 (alts dumped equally too and I saw it, I think some more crab walking this month and hopefully next month will be better
I hate those fast dumps, it's been happening a lot over the last while...
!hiqvote
I hate it too lool, we've got a lot of those fast crash in October and it's concerning
With any luck we'll finally see some gains, the old march sideways is getting kind of old. But it beats a drop of $10K in a day, so it's not all bad!
The FTX days where the dip was just too unbelievable. I thought we'd never survive
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This is very true! I think that every cycle, a lot of people (including myself) think about how altcoins will finally "decouple" from BTC as they have their "own value"... With ETH 4 years ago, recently with SOL, and now with SUI, but the truth is that we are probably not ready yet... Maybe in 5, 10, 20, 50 years, but not yet...
Like you said, "BTC all day long", until the BTC dominance top... 😃
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Yes, we're all waiting for that decoupling, and I think it might take long. Surprisingly crypto is still relatively new considering the fact that it's not even up to 20 years yet.
So the market will not continue to follow the same pattern all the time without some dynamism, I don't think it means not having a bull or bear run, like a lot of people mostly fear.
These wild imaginations of a bull run not happening is because of these changes to how the cycle works.
Thanks for the Curation
It's true that it seem to be different this time around. The bull didn't last that long and it was only BTC and some coins while most were left behind.
There's probably no bull run properly, yet. all that might be changing soon
I think the elections and ETFs are the major factor pushing things back. I do think that the ETFs have changed things quite a bit so I am not sure if we will stick to the pattern as the hedgefunds like to manipulate prices. I do think that it will go up in the long run though.
Well, for me I think the ETF makes things a little manipulatable, I'm not a fan, and I hope we don't get that much of a drawback with it when the bull market peaks.
Everything would be much cleaner if we were able to see all those ETF's BTC addresses with coins on them...
At this stage, it's just playing with numbers... I'm waiting for the moment when ETFs will own 22M BTCs... :D
Too few... Why not 220m BTC? Everything is possible with derivatives and fractional reserves.
Hehehehe... If BTC goes down 1K, they will add another 0 to the "millions" number... 🤣
I have been thinking, since COVID in 2020, didn't affect the bull run, definitely, the US election shouldn't also...I really cannot place hand on anything that could be the possible cause of the delay but I am remaining positive that despite the Market dynamics, bull run will surely come, although we don't know exactly when
Talking about US election, I will be in your watsapp DM joe, soon for a question around that plz
It's market dynamics that's the major cause. We've already seen the halving event earlier in April and some other parameters. We had COVID in 2020 like I said and that was a more terrible event but the bull run happened.
No problem, I'll be available..
I'll hold my thoughts until the end of the month. Although this small pushback from 69k probably means we won't have an ATH in October. It looks like the market is holding its breath for the results of the US elections...
Maybe it will be a magic November! Let's all cross our fingers!
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