Analyzing the coup in Gabon using the contagion theory of military intervention
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In just a few weeks two coup d'etat has happened in Africa and the recent one just happened today in Gabon one of the richest country in Central Africa. I'll be using the contagion theory of military intervention to analyze the recent military juntas that have bedevilled Africa.
Just 5 days after the general elections (Saturday 26, 2023) that saw a 60.5% landslide win of Ali Bongo who have been the president of Gabon for 14 years and about to resume the third term in office as President and commander in chief, a group of military officers (mostly those of the National Guard) announced on TV that they'd taken over the government due to failed governance by the current regime.
According to their intervention speech:
“Our beautiful country, Gabon, has always been a haven of peace. Today, the country is going through a serious institutional, political, economic and social crisis.”
“We are therefore forced to admit that the organisation of the general elections of 26 August 2023 did not meet the conditions for a transparent, credible and inclusive ballot so much hoped for by the people of Gabon.
“Added to this is irresponsible and unpredictable governance, resulting in a continuing deterioration in social cohesion, with the risk of leading the country into chaos…People of Gabon, we are finally on the road to happiness. May God and the spirits of our ancestors bless Gabon. Honour and loyalty to our homeland.”Source
From the above statement, you'll see that the country's economy, political as well as social wellbeing have been affected by the irresponsibility of government of the country and this is the current situation of most governance currently in Africa.
If the above fact is true and there had been successful coups in various parts of Africa in recent times then the contagion theory of military intervention will be suitable to analyze the possibilities of military officers planning same in other African countries. At the end of this post, you'll see if cares not taken by current democratic governments in Africa another will take place.
What is the Contagion Theory of Military Intervention and How has it Affected Africa in Recent Years?
Mali (August 2020): The Malian military seized control over controversial unrest following the parliamentary election in which former President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was ousted. This left a military-led government in power.
Chad (April 2021): Former President Idriss Deby was assassinated while visiting troops in Northern Chad fighting the rebel group Front for Change and Concord in Chad. His son, Army General Mahamat Idriss Deby was quickly installed in his place, in a blatant power grab which was in violation of the Constitution.
Guinea (September 2021): Mamady Doumbouya, a United States-trained Special Forces commander lead a coup against former President Alpha Conde. He claimed to have acted in public interest, following years of poverty, endemic corruption, and against a controversial constitutional amendment that allowed Alpha Conde to be elected for a third election term.
Sudan (October 2021): The Sudanese military, led by its General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan seized power, by tearing up a power-sharing deal with former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, that was meant to lead Sudan to its first free election in decades.
Burkina Faso (January 2022): Led by military leader Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, the former President Roch Kabore was detained by soldiers and his government was overthrown and dissolved.
Guinea Bissau (February 2022): There was a failed putsch in Guinea Bissau, a coastal state in West Africa. Despite being one of Africa’s smallest country, it has become a giant in the drugs and narcotics trade due to which it suffers from endemic corruption and has been mired in chronic political instability.
Niger (July 2023):
Gabon (August 2023)
Which African country is Next? (Month and Year)
From the above coup d'etat and there dates, one could see that one successful coup triggered the other to happen and all the military interventions have been linked with rapacious corruption of the democratic governments, which is one of the components of governance in Africa.
Sources: