Minor Chest - Drop Item Probability and Costs

Hello All, I am sure you are all keen to learn more about what the new reward chest payout are sitting at.

The "Minor" chest, priced at 200 Glint, includes various drop items such as Reward Cards, Potions, Merits, Energy, and a Jackpot, each with specific probabilities and costs that influence player investment decisions depending on what you are going after.

First of the big old table

As you can see we need to look across multiplying probabilities, first the likely hood of each item dropping, and then within each item type, how the sub types drop as well. On top of that we also have a multiplier, which in this case for cards is 1 which makes it easier.

Distribution of Reward Card Types:

• Common Reward Cards: These are the most frequently dropped cards, constituting 78.9% of the Reward Card drops. They have an average multiplier of 1,reward cards drop 30% of the time, resulting in an actual drop rate of 23.67% of all loot.
• Rare Reward Cards: These are less common, making up 20% of the Reward Card drops. Like the common cards, they have an average multiplier of 1, giving them a drop rate of 6% of all loot.
• Epic Reward Cards: Significantly rarer, these cards constitute only 1% of Reward Card drops, with a resulting drop rate of 0.3% of all loot.
• Legendary Reward Cards: These are the rarest, making up just 0.1% of the Reward Card drops. They have an extremely low drop rate of 0.03% of all loot instances.

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Now it is interesting how we can compare this to the new option we have, just purchasing a certain card or time type. To work out this approach we looked at how many times we would need to buy a chest to guarantee (statistically)a drop of a card.

For example, to for sure get a common card we need to buy ~4 minor chests,costing us ~800 glint to get a card

We can take this approach for all items except Jackpot and then compare to the price for just purchasing

As you can see, if you are after just one type of card i.e Epic you are much better buying that card chest rather then rolling the dice with minor chests. In fact for Epics you would collect them nine times faster!

However we also need to look at what happened each time we did not get our epic, we might have gotten a common instead!

So the second approach is to look at the total prize value of all the potential drops. The best way to think about it is that to get 1 legendry cards statistically we need 3333.33 chest. So lets roll 3333 chest and see the results?

• Reward Card - Common: 789 drops
• Reward Card - Rare: 200 drops
• Reward Card - Epic: 10 drops
• Reward Card - Legendary: 1 drop
• Potion - Legendary: Approximately 533.317 drops
• Potion - Alchemy: Approximately 533.317 drops
• Merits: 100,000 drops
• Energy: Approximately 166.667 drops
• Jackpot: Approximately 0.033 drops

We also know how much glnit it would cost to role this many chests, ~666k and we know the purchase price of the same items directly ~845k glint. So if you are after all types fo cards, potions, merits and energy you should purchase chests,if you want one type of item, it is worth going for the item chest.

Two little notes, first energy was based of my current level in Diamond and jackpot was excluded....