Bears to the Bulls, "Not so Fast"
Crypto runs in cycles. All of us who have been involved in this space for the last few years realize this is true. You can go back in time and watch Bitcoin make gigantic runs in the bull markets and then see devastating drops in the bear. We have now been in a crypto "winter" for almost a year and a half and the bulls are getting anxious that it's time for another run.
For the last couple months, there have been signs that its coming. Bitcoin plummeted to a low below $16k before rebounding to $25k. It has since lost it's momentum and has been trading sideways and down for a while until it sits at $22k today. The problem is, the economy right now is not in a good place. Interest rates are not just ticking up, they're leaping upwards and the Fed has shown no signs of letting up with the most recent meeting hinting at another big jump.
The other problem is that these interest rate hikes are based on lagging indicators, which means that until we see the metrics they use to make their decisions improve six months ago, they're not going to change their tune. So even if things seem like they are getting under control in the current environment, it will take six months before we know, thus the Fed could keep raising.
Furthermore, it takes 6-9 months for the changes they make today to actually impact what they're trying to achieve. In other words, things are still going to get worse before they get better. We've already seen companies cutting jobs and I would expect that is going to continue into the summer.
As much as we all want to see the bull return and watch the stacking we've done over the winter pay dividends in a big way, its still a ways away. I'm not even sure we've seen the bottom on Bitcoin yet. There are a couple people I follow out there that still think $11k is in the cards before we bottom out. With the way the economy looks, I'm not sure I don't agree.
On the plus side, this gives us more time to keep stacking at these cheaper prices. As difficult as it can be to grind away with little to no signs of rewards, history has shown that this is the way. The bull markets get all the glory, but true life-changing wealth is built during the bears. If you put $1000 into the market and three months later it's worth $20k, that is awesome. No question. But if you spend 2 years putting in $20k, then those 3 months take it to $400k. Big difference.
So, while it gets harder and harder to spend day after day grinding it out for little to no reward, every tiny fraction of a token you can acquire at these prices can be worth twentyfold during the next bull. We just need to keep our heads down and keep doing the little things every day that will keep moving us in the right direction.
I've been through a couple of these cycles now and I know how hard it is. But I also know how important it is to stay the course. There is a rainbow on the other side, but we have to get through the storm first.
Hive is the Way.
LeoFinance, the Gateway.
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You are right it has been almost a year we are in a bear cycle and everyone is waiting for the bull market to come. As the economy is doing and the way the inflation is growing, the bull market has become very important. Many people have invested in the bull market and their investment is now less than half. But now there is not much time left, I also feel that soon as you said, there will be a bull cycle in six months. "There is a rainbow on the other side, but we have to get through the storm first" I loved that you said.
I hope you're right about it being 6 months away. Personally, I think it could be longer. The bull market peaked in Jan 2018 and then again in Nov 2021. By that metric, you be looking at the next bull peaking sometime the end of 2025. That means we're still over two years from that happening. It feels like we may be stuck in this winter for at least another year. I hope I'm wrong but...that's what it kind of looks like to me.
This is what happening from the past two years, One ever we start to turn bullish, the bear comes and scratch the bear and says, I'm still here and won't let you go away from my hands :D
Yup. Unfortunately, I think its going to keep happening for a while yet. Maybe another year. Taking a macro view, it really feels like we're in for another bad year. Hopefully I'm wrong...
I'm also hoping and praying for you be wrong :-P
Yes, completely agree with you bulls may be a year or 2 to come properly.
The cycles take longer than we would like in the bear and not long enough in the bull depending on timing and perspective.
Thank you for holding virtualgrowth token. You have been included in today's post.
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u building your stack high in BTC? or just HIVE/LEO and others?
:P my wife buys GBTC, i think its a ETF made of crypto.. she sold it the other day since BTC fell some, but the price of GBTC actually rose 9%. ah ha.. that's crypto..
I have a small weekly autobuy for BTC. I was in gbtc a couple years ago but got out of it when I saw the premium starting to get weird. Mostly I'm just stacking HIVE/LEO. And then there's Splinterlands...
😉👍
Two major events have taken place in the last three years... First, greater than 50% of all dollars ever created throughout history, have been printed. Also, the Fed has raised rates to 5%, the highest they've been in Bitcoin's history. That being the case, I don't think we can draw parallels to previous bull/bear cycles.
In my mind, something in traditional finance has to break soon with interest rates this high. Whether that will cause crypto to skyrocket, crash temporarily, or for an extended period of time is anyone's guess. We truly are in unprecedented times, but crypto's momentum never stops, and sooner or later it will be the ultimate winner.
It's hard and I agree that there are a ton of lagging indicators. Many of the changes that they make don't really affect the markets until later on after the money trickles down. At the same time, I don't think the government/FED is doing a good job of improving the economic situation. So aiming for the long term is way easier.
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I know a lot of people who are waiting for the bull market to come. I am also waiting patiently too
The way we've seen it over the last couple of years is that Time tries to go up but then gets pulled down, you can see that it got pulled down pretty badly yesterday and down about three thousand dollars. It has happened in its price As far as I am concerned, 2023 will also pass like this and the bull market will come in 2024. The last time I remember the bear market was 6 months ago we sale all our coins and after that the price skyrocketed.