What do the French elections mean?

One of the most puzzling elections in the Western world are the elections for the National Assembly in France. They were called three years before they needed to be held and have resulted in a messy gridlocked parliament.

Why did Macron call the elections in the first place?

Macron's party had done badly in the European Parliament elections, and National Rally (LePen's outfit) had topped the poll on 30%. But this was no big deal - the French, like other European countries, regard the European Parliament as a Mickey Mouse outfit, good for a consequence-free protest vote, no more.

The Euopean Parliament results came in on Sunday 9th June. The next day, Monday 10th June, President Macron announced he was dissolving the National Assembly.

This came as a shock to everyone, including to Macron's own party who tried to talk him out of it. The French Assembly matters because it controls France's budget. Why destabalise it, three years before elections were due?

Apparently Macron's thinking was as follows:

a) All the parties were broke after spending on the European Parliament elections. They can put in a claim to the state support of political parties for reimbursement, but because of bureaucracy, this will take months.

b) Banks only lend to the parties of center right and the Left. Banks do not lend to RN (aka National Rally, LePen's party).

c) to run a candidacy costs a minimum of €5,000 a seat (deposit, mandatory posters, leaflets and so on). In competitive seats where you have to campaign harder, it costs about €50,000 per seat.

LePen's party can't borrow from a bank, and since the Ukraine war, can't tap Russia. So they're wholly dependent on new small donations from French supporters and would have to prioritize seats to spend on.

d) The small parties on the left, Greens, Communists, Socialists, Anarchists, would be broke after the European elections and would not be able to run everywhere as they would in a general election.

Thus, Macron was sure that his party, Ensemble, would make it to the second round, whereupon everyone would be forced to vote for them to "stop the fascists".

What actually happened was the small parties on the left banded together in a non-competitive pact. Instead of competing everywhere, the Greens and so on only stood where they were strongest, with the other leftist parties withdrawing to give them a clear run. Thus the expenses for each party were low as they were only competing in a few seats, and the left vote wasn't split.

Further, they all ran under "The Republican Front", so voters could easily identify their alliance.

Well, after two rounds, the Republican Front topped the poll with 182 seats, Ensemble won 163 seats, National Rally won 143 seats.

No-one has a majority, and it looks like it's impossible to form a coalition.

Macron's gamble has failed and France will likely need new elections.