Bull Run?

The crypto world remains fascinating—both the crypto itself and the people who hang around in it. Some have made a conscious choice, and others have ended up in it by chance. And they all hope and believe in one thing: the dream of financial independence after the big "Bull Run." But will that big Bull Run come?

Where do we stand with crypto at the moment? And how does Hive compare to Bitcoin? Let's look at the numbers and ask: Can Hive benefit from a possible bull run, or is it limited by the selling pressure that weighs on the market every month?

Bitcoin: Four years of growth and correction

Let's start with Bitcoin. Bitcoin's performance over the past four years has been impressive. In 2019, the price of Bitcoin was around $7,000. Fast forward to 2021, and Bitcoin reached an all-time high of almost $69,000 in November. Since then, the market has undergone corrections, and Bitcoin has fallen back to a range between $25,000 and $30,000 in 2023. Only to come back very strongly in 2024 and make a new all-time high of $73,000 before the halving. We have now traded below that again due to a decreasing demand for Bitcoin, especially in the US. Despite this volatility, the long-term trend for Bitcoin is still positive. The coin is seen as a store of value, a hedge against inflation, and a relatively safe haven in times of economic uncertainty.

But while expectations are high for Bitcoin, the question arises: how is Hive doing?

Hive: Hard figures and selling pressure

Hive's path is a different story. Four years ago, in July 2020, Hive was around $0.25. In the four years that followed, Hive has shown some price increases, peaking at around $2.80 in January 2021. After that, however, Hive has only gone downhill to where we are now. Just under 17 cents! Compared to the enormous profit percentages that Bitcoin has achieved, you can therefore consider this performance of Hive to be very mediocre.

Currently, we see Hive struggling to get above $0.17. One of the biggest challenges for Hive is the constant selling pressure. A significant amount of Hive is sold every month, precisely by projects that have been set up to strengthen our ecosystem. While I fully understand that these projects claim to work on marketing goals, or bringing in new users, what I have noticed so far is that the impact is large, but then in a negative sense. It only creates additional selling pressure. Now I am no economist by any means, but to me, it seems that this additional selling pressure is something that Hive cannot bear at the moment.

The chance of a bull run for Hive

If we look at the expectations for Bitcoin, there seems to be little doubt about a possible bull run. Macro Economic circumstances can of course also throw a spanner in the works here, and the geopolitical situation everywhere in the world is not exactly stable, to say the least. This of course also has the necessary impact on EVERY financial market. But the fact remains that the scarcity of Bitcoin is increased by halving the rewards for miners, the halving. Theoretically, this ensures an increase in the demand for Bitcoin. Because there is less supply on the market, the price ultimately rises. It is all theoretical, but in the past, it has always worked like this.

Now the question is, will that also work for Hive? Will Hive benefit from a possible Bull Run? Unfortunately, I have to say here that this is a lot less certain.

The selling pressure that weighs on Hive, in combination with the fact that investments in Hive remain low, AND an excessively growing inflation in Hive make it difficult to see the same growth opportunities. Unlike Bitcoin, which derives its value from its scarcity and adoption as digital gold, this does not apply to Hive at all. Hive is more dependent on usage within its ecosystem. This means that Hive's value increases as more people actively participate in the platform.

But without substantial investment, without a reduction in selling pressure, and with increasing inflation, the question remains whether Hive can benefit from a possible broader bull run in the crypto market.

Will we be rich after the Bull Run?

That there will be another crypto Bull Run is fairly certain, unless crypto goes completely under. But whether Hive can benefit from a possible Bull Run is unfortunately very uncertain. If you bet on a huge increase in the Hive price, there is unfortunately a chance that you will notice little to nothing of a crypto Bull Run once it happens.

Is it all negative? No, it's not ... we probably will still have a community of like-minded people. And of course, It's possible I'm completely wrong and we're about to have the greatest Bull Run ever with Hive prices skyrocketing to the point where even Bitcoin pales. One has to dream!