Friday Market Musings | Week 49 | 2023
Do you have that too? That feeling that we're on the edge of something... And that something can go either way. It may be that we can continue this uptrend, but it may also be that we fall off the edge and take a big dive again. I feel that tension building up more and more in the last few days. And on the one hand, I am extremely happy to see crypto in a nice uptrend again. But on the other hand, I hold my breath, because the feeling that we are coming back to earth with a hard blow remains present and becomes stronger.
Oh, A Super Cycle ... Again!
In the meantime, I see messages from crypto analysts again with the aim of trying to arouse the buying desire of crypto freaks. The most beautiful statements pass by, but what can we believe about them? I don't know, but I think I saw it happen last time. A crypto super cycle is underway. I think they said that in 2021 too. And then Bitcoin would definitely rise to 100K USD. I think you also have a memory of where we stopped? Well, hold on tight, because according to a Bloomberg analyst, Bitcoin could easily rise to 500K USD in the next super cycle. Are you already feeling the itch to sell your house right away and pump all your money into Bitcoin? I am not a financial advisor, as you know by now, but I would still wait a while before considering that. Or you have to be the lucky owner of at least 2 houses... Then you could take a chance if you feel the need.
Keeping my FOMO under control
In short, I'm a bit more down-to-earth these days and all these messages, with the wildest predictions, make me laugh a bit. It seems like they are all focused on the same thing, trying to get you to buy their Bitcoin. Now I am certainly not an opponent of Bitcoin, on the contrary. But I do try to keep my brain on track a little more. When I look at what I have lost over the years by no longer having my FOMO under control, I am shocked! People can tell it all so beautifully, they can write it so beautifully and play on your 'greed' so well. Your fear of missing out on that big money boat AGAIN... well, I think we all know it.
Are we going to see a SECOND Capitulation?
If you still have doubts about why I have to laugh a bit at the positive wild predictions, and think, "Yes, you're laughing, but I'm going to buy now before I miss everything", then you might think twice if I point out on the history of Bitcoin and the bull and bear markets. The two previous bear markets both only ended with a SECOND capitulation of Bitcoin. And yes, you may think that we have already seen it, but in fact we have not. And that could actually mean that we could still owe it. Which in other words means that it could be possible that a major price correction is still around the corner. And you wouldn't want to have invested all your savings in Bitcoin just before that price correction.
Be aware, it still is, and will always be Crypto!
I don't have a crystal ball, so like you, I can't see into the future. I cannot say with certainty that Bitcoin still has a capitulation ahead of it. I also cannot guarantee that this will not happen. Caution remains advised. We are still talking about crypto here, a lot can happen between the moments you go to sleep and wake up again.
All this does not alter the fact that I am currently enjoying the rally that is going on, and that I hope that this is just the beginning. It is becoming time! I'm really ready to see great things happen again, I'm ready to see the community come alive again, so in that respect I say...
Bring on the bulls!
And having said all this, I close these musings again, the household chores are waiting again, the dogs want to go out and I have other things I have to do. Have a nice weekend everyone and see you next week with new Market Musings!
I've been feeling that way for a little over a month now, that we are right on the edge of something and it is either going to be a massive boost or a sudden drop. I don't really care either way. I have been DCA's into BTC for the past couple of years and I don't plan on stopping anytime soon. I don't really even miss that money anymore now that I have it built into my budget.
Well, seems like we dropped off the edge today. Just log on to Hive now, and see that Hive took a big hit. So I went to check Bitcoin, and yeah ... we dropped off the edge.
I had some buys in for Hive at the lower price, so I didn't feel too bad about the drop. It's definitely not as exciting though!
I guess we could've expected this to happen. December is often a 'fucked up month' as lots seem to want to sell for Christmas. Let's hope it'll be better in January.
Yeah, we are still a bit early for the real run if the halving cycle is to be believed. It was nice to finally seem some positive movement. Even if it was short lived.
I couldn't agree more. It was very nice to see the positive movement. But my gut already told me that it wouldn't last ... so at least I learned that I can 'trust' my gut more often.
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If you can put that in HBD savings it's awesome. But when you need it for living it's a different game. And lots of people do need it for living these days with the insanely high costs of living everywhere.
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