It's Friday again. And what a week again. As far as I have been following, Bitcoin is back in the 36-thousand-dollar range. After an excursion to almost 38 thousand, it turned out not to be the right time for that. What does that say for the state of the market right now? Let's zoom in a little further on what is going on in other financial markets.

Of course, we have all had to deal with, and still do, the extremely increased costs due to mega inflation around the world. The central banks then started raising interest rates to slow down the economy so that inflation could normally fall. The risk associated with these interest rate increases is that the economy will be slowed down so much that recessions will follow. People were not so afraid of this, but now at the end of 2023, there is a threat of a global recession.

You already see stock markets going down. Walmart's share fell by about 8% and even the Chinese Alibaba could not hold its own and fell by 10%. In addition, you have seen a falling oil price for a number of months, while the OPEC countries have been producing significantly less since October 2022 to prop up the oil price. That's strange because the war in Ukraine is still going on, and there has now been a war in the Middle East. From this, we might conclude that the economy is weakening all over the world. And that poses the risk of a global recession in 2024.

What kind of problems can we expect? Normally, in times of recession, people sell their riskiest assets, and you get the idea. That could mean a big blow to the entire crypto market. On the other hand, we do have the next Bitcoin halving scheduled for April 2024. And historically, that is the catalyst for the next bull market.

The next thing that could keep Bitcoin afloat is that normally the Central Banks, which have now pushed interest rates to high levels to slow down the economy and reduce inflation, often start lowering interest rates in times of recession. And that is very bullish for Bitcoin. The latest positive boost that can be expected for Bitcoin is the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF in the US.

We might see a serious dip

All in all, we may well see another big dip in the next few months, perhaps a Black Swan when it becomes 'official' that we are in a global recession. But with all the other impetus that lies ahead for Bitcoin, it would normally be expected that the price will recover quickly enough and all in all it still looks more bullish than bearish for the longer term.

You know it, but I still have to say, like every week, that I am not a financial advisor. I didn't study for this, maybe I should... LOL! This is all just my interpretation. So, tighten your digital goggles, HODL your breath and let's just sit here for the foreseeable future and sail the very choppy crypto waves together in our virtual boat. After all, it is Friday, the day for my Market Musings. And that is exactly what you just read. Nothing more and nothing less. This world of crypto is and remains a world of financial uncertainty.

But it is our world.

Happy Weekend Guys!