Can Splinterlands Survive the Bear?
Depending on how much your crypto portfolio is diversified and where those investments are located, the impact of the current bear market might not be as obvious. As a long time investor in Splinterlands, I am seeing a substandtial impact on my Splinterlands portfolio.
It looks like the image above might have been cut off, but my last season rewards were somewhere in the range of $.90. That was with 48 gold chests. I have a friend that was able to get a little under twice the number of gold chests as me, and their haul was about half the value.
In addition to that, I noticed last night that the cards I am renting out via a dedicate rental account only pulled in close to 1000 DEC for the day. In the past, this account has regularly pulled in 3000 to 4000 DEC per day. I understand it is the beginning of a new season, so that could account for the lower numbers. I still think the data is very telling.
I was in a chat room the other day and an unnamed source brought up their opinion that whales are the ones who are holding up Splinterlands right now. It's something to the effect of they have invested too much to let it fail.
I'm not sure I totally agree with that, but I do see some merit in it. I wouldn't consider myself a whale by any means, but I have been lucky enough to invest more than the average player in to the game.
I'll be honest. Watching SPS drop from an all time high of just over $1 down to the current price of $.02 is definitely a kick in the nuts.
Likewise, it was just over a year ago that DEC was pushing the $.02 mark. Can you imagine DEC at $.01 today? Even if I was only pulling in 1000 DEC per day in rental income, it would still be life changing! I mean who couldn't use an extra $300 to $450 per month. That's like a loan payment (if I had any of those anymore).
Being invested in a variety of NFT games, I can say that Splinterlands isn't alone in their current situation. We all know that prices are down across the board. WAX is close to a low I haven't seen since my initial investment. TLM (Alienworlds token) is a fraction of what it used to be. Things are bleak pretty much everywhere you look.
The one thing I think Splinterlands has going for it is the continued development that we are setting. I really think that this bear has forced the team to take a long hard look at what they are doing here. They had to make some hard decisions concerning layoffs and they have returned their focus to Lands with what I hope is a renewed vigor.
Since I am being honest here, I have to admit that part of me feels like even come the next bull market, I don't necessarily think any of the existing projects will the ones that drive it.
That is to say, I don't know as though we will ever hit the ATH's that we hit in the past with Splinterlands. Trust me, I hope I am wrong, but don't be shocked if I am right.
That isn't to say that there isn't going to be some positive movement. I do think that (especially Splinterlands) can find a happy medium between where it is now and where we were that can prove beneficial for everyone who is invested.
So do I think Splinterlands can survive the bear market? Yes. It did it in the past as a much younger and less mature project. Do I think it is going to disrupt on the same level as it has in the past though? Probably not. The NFT market overall has kind of cooled down and though I am still not on board 100%, we can't overlook the fact that Splinterlands is partially propped up by a handful of large accounts.
If even a moderate account like mine continues to pull in less that $1 per season in rewards, attitudes could shift very quickly...
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The market for cryptocurrencies is still relatively young and volatile, and it is difficult to accurately predict its future and the development of many of these project. If this market continues I do think we will see a very different landscape during the next bull market. I fear splinterlands might be too 'old' in crypto terms to attract new investors. The crypto space has a real problem with people flooding into the the new shiny project even if older more established ones have better fundamentals. I don't think it will fail, but it might never reach the peak of the past bull market. This is the same feeling I have for Hive. Our blockchain is better than 99% of what's out there, but we don't have the exposure and people keep piling into projects looking to make a quick buck. Untill people what actual change vs quick riches I fear for the space. We will continue to get more grifters and negative press which will drive over regulation. Over regulation will drive out the remaining whales.
Yeah, that is a really great point. I don't think think Splinterlands is dead, but like I am said, I don't know if it will ever reach the heights it did before. It sounds like you and I are really on the same page in future outlook crypto.
Many hardcore gamers and streamers who have played Splinterlands would need an incentive to come back or they move on to the next big thing.
Yeah, I think that is the case with a lot of them. Gamers are pretty fickle with new titles being released all the time. I think many people will have moved on. It's hard to say.
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What can push up the price of SPS and DEC? There are lots of people earning both, so the market is flooded, but there's not a huge incentive to buy them. It seems most game tokens are well down. As always the markets will decide what they are worth and those who run the games have to add value.
Yeah, I think they are working on it, but who knows. They have some proposals. It's hard to say what is going to happen with the price. The plans for the ultimate price of DEC are far less than what we have seen with the ATH.
They need to look after the small accounts though..I'm seeing these Xmas sales and you can buy this and that for 1000 dollars. Most people don't have that kind of money to spend on a game.and in the end its just the same old heads buying up the packs.
Yeah, I totally agree with that. Those sales are pretty silly. I am glad that I was able to get into some of the consortiums. That really helped me buy some more.
Splinterlands will survive, but ATH, I don't know, if development comes too fast, and it is another money sink just to keep up, it will be hard to gain some value.
By the way, what other games do you play?
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Yeah, I kind of agree. I think it will still be around, but probably not all time highs. I hope I am wrong though. Anything positive is good at this point though. I play Alien Worlds, Dark Country, Rising Star, Realms, Metro Origins, I think there are a couple more too.
Nice, I do only Splinterlands, Rising star and DCity at the moment.
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I have some assets in DCity, but I haven't looked at them in forever.
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I don’t believe it will 🥲
I'm thinking about renting my cards out and taking a break for a while, I will be devoting all my game time to psyberx. The testing is going great and the game is fun even without getting rewards until beta launch. Do you use a rental service?
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Yeah, I have been using splinterrents for all of my cards that I rent out. It is good to have a second account you can move the cards you want to rent to.
I agree it's going to be a rough stretch for a while, but I think if they can get Land working and reenergize the rental market, you'll see prices pick up again. I'm not sure what to make of SPS. It's just hard to wrap my brain around that many tokens. Unless and until they can really light a fire under the gaming masses, I just don't see how that can ever climb very far. The cards though, I think will recover. What they need to do is what Ragnarok is doing. Build an HBD position somehow so they can self-fund things going forward. It would have been better if they had done it earlier, obviously, but I still think it would be a good thing to try and get in place for the future. It takes less than 4 years to double if you compound the interest. That could go a long way in the future.
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To be fair, the 20% wasn't around when they first started. Returns would be skewed by that fact. Moving forward though, it would be a great idea. Cheaper pack prices will likely drive more users.
That is true. It's hard to plan for something that doesn't exist. lol We'll see about the cheaper pack prices. I think one thing that has really helped the rental market is the new brawling formats with the GF only frays. I think developing and expanding that aspect of the game is where they could really go a long way towards sustainability. The rental prices really creep up each time there's a new brawl.
My rental income hasn't been great lately, but I think there was a problem with their code. I think it was reporting less rewards than we were actually getting. I have to double check that this morning.
My rental income usually drops to about 1/3 of what it ends up being by the end of the season. All the rentals kind of hit the market at once in the first few days so the bots take the prices way down. Once the first few days are out of the way things start moving up again.
That makes sense!
🤔 I'm a thinker. lol
I think it all depends on what is developed for the game. As it is right now, there are a lot of people who have gotten out of crypto due to FTX/LUNA and I have seen a lot of people complain about the rewards. In a way, the prices aren't as high and people have just decided it wasn't worth as much effort and some of the changes they had wasn't that great.
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I don't think we are seeing the new players join like they were either. A lot of that has to do with the bear market though. I honey don't know what is going to happen.