RE: Politics Bring Cryptocurrency Into The Mainstream
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How else will you explain (on Tuesday or Wednesday) the polls being so different from the actual results?
Look at this aggregate of polls on 538:
Trafalgar is right-leaning, Red Eagle Politics is right leaning, The Telegraph is right-leaning, Fox is right-leaning, Real Clear Defense is right-leaning.
The problem is that left-leaning organizations try so hard to appear balanced, while right-leaning organizations don't (so the median skews to the right). I truly don't believe the media is controlled by the left ; WSJ is owned by Jeff Bezos, Fox is owned by Rupert Murdoch, Patrick Soon-Shiong owns the LA Times, John Malone owns CNN, these are all right-leaning owners. Billionaires tend to lean right because they want the tax cuts, they don't care about social security, unions and healthcare.
I am going to cut you some slack due to the fact that you are not American, so perhaps your ignorance of American media is to be expected. Let us start with the list.
The WSJ is right leaning but it isnt owned by Jeff Bezos. To say Bezos is a right leaning owner is foolish. What he actually owns, in addition to a bunch of Amazon stock (one of the most left leaning companies) is the Washington Post, the epitome of liberal papers. That one is even further to the left than the NY Times, another radical left paper.
Then you mention CNN. Is your claim that CNN isnt left leaning? That is absurd.
As for the rest of the media, outside Fox, everything is to the left.
How about social media:
Then you have the streaming apps:
All these are owned by corporations that are heavily to the left. Just look at Bob Iger and Reed Hastings.
This is no longer the case.
Lets look at the Bloomberg Billionaire Index (Americans only):
8 Steve Balmer - D
They arent worried about that since they tend have the firepower to combat whatever tax situations there are.
Ah, sorry about confusing the WSJ and WP.
I honestly think that things are changing... the Washington Post editorial section was going to endorse Harris until Bezos told them not to and so for the first time in 68 years they didn't endorse anyone. They lost over 250K subscriptions over the issue, so Jeff Bezo might vote D, but he's certainly not publicly picking a side.
Apparently Mark Zuckerberg has been calling Trump (hasn't endorsed anyone) and their Twitter-copycat Threads has been squashing all political content (it hasn't banned it but the algorithm doesn't boost any of it either).
Sundar Pichai of Google has apparently also been calling Trump too.
The YouTube algorithm boosts right-leaning content because it boosts by engagement and right-leaning content gets the most engagement. Facebook leans extremely heavily to the right because the main users are older.
Elon has done way more for Trump than all the other billionaires combined have for Harris.
My point is that I don't think it's so clear cut anymore what is left-leaning in this election cycle. Media companies have been hedging their bets and not pushing hard in either direction, potentially because Trump has threatened to have ABC and other licenses removed.... which pushes the Overton window to the right.
NYT doesn't push as hard to the left as Fox does to the right. If you remember NYT columnist Elza Klein called for Biden to drop out back in February and they often publish right-leaning opinion pieces and they don't publish a lot of the incendiary things that Trump says, effectively catering to a more moderate audience.
I truly don't think things are as clear cut as they used to be. It's way more complex and nuanced now that Trumps threats and popularity really have changed the media landscape.
Regardless of all this though... all the polls and prediction markets have either had Trump ahead or 50/50 for months... and I think we'll find out on Tuesday that they've all been extremely wrong. So we'll need to figure out why they've been so wrong, and my theory is that lots of right-leaning polls skewed the results towards Trump.
Is anyone else has a better theory I'd absolutely open to it.