WOO Mining - How much chance do I have to win now
The popularity of WOO is steadily increasing in the last week. The price of $WOO is growing as well. More and more posts appear in the hive blogosphere.
Around a month ago I wrote my first post on how to earn through WOO, just recently I did an overview on how much I earn: WOO 100k $WOO staked and how much do I earn from my assets
And now it is the right time to ask:
Please take into consideration that even though I studied mathematics, probability calculation is hard and complicated, so my calculations might be a bit off, but I tried my best.
What are my chances to win with WOO Mining?
First and foremost we need to calculate how much chance we have to win. For that we need the Monday updates from @tobias-g regarding mining statistics. Let's look into them:
| Date | Unique Accounts | Account % | Total Cards | Card % | Total Tickets | Ticket % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/22 | 403 | 56413 | 2216089 | |||
| 8/29 | 447 | 10.92% | 60331 | 6.95% | 2327724 | 5.04% |
| 9/5 | 484 | 8.28% | 66008 | 9.41% | 2408375 | 3.46% |
| 9/12 | 505 | 4.34% | 69774 | 5.71% | 2551349 | 5.94% |
What do we see in this table. Within 1 month:
- The amount of new accounts increased by over 100
- The cards in the mining pool increase by over 13000
- There are 300.000 more tickets in the game
Now these numbers show that the project is growing, more and more people are interested in the game even though it is not out yet. This is because the team is delivering, developing the tools and listening and responding to requests. Just the type of people you want to have on the go.
Calculating WOO Mining chances?
I will compare the chance of winning once an hour or day in mining now and 1 month ago. What we know is:
- There were 2216089 tickets at the beginning of the raffle on 8/22 and 2551349 on 9/12
- 50 raffles are done each hour.
- In each hour every ticket holder can win only once. This means, that all of the winners lottery tickets are exempt from the following raffles of the hour. This would mean, that if someone has 100000 tickets and wins, then none of these tickets will be included in future draws in that hour.
So to get the probability if we will have at least one win in an hour from 50 pulls it is the simplest to turn the tables. Let's see the probability of not winning from 50 pulls.
Please don't forget, that in probability all correct results are between 0 and 1. 0 it does not happen, 1 it happens for sure, and everything in between
- Chance of having a winning ticket in 1 raffle pull:
my tickets / all tickets - Chance of not having a winning ticket in 1 raffle pull:
1- (my tickets / all tickets) - Chance my tickets won't win in 50 raffle pulls:
(1- (my tickets / all tickets)) on the power of 50 - Chance I have at least one winning ticket in 50 raffle pulls:
1- [(1- (my tickets / all tickets)) on the power of 50]
Now lets see the results in case we have 100, 500, 1.000, 2.000, 5.000 or 10.000 tickets
| Ticket Count | 8/22 : Chance To Win once an Hour | 9/12 : Chance To Win once an Hour | 8/22 : Chance To Win once an day | 9/12 : Chance To Win once an day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0.23% | 0.20% | 5.27% | 4.59% |
| 500 | 1.12% | 0.98% | 23.75% | 20.96% |
| 1.000 | 2.23% | 1.94% | 41.82% | 37.53% |
| 2.000 | 4.41% | 3.85% | 66.16% | 60.98% |
| 5.000 | 10.68% | 9.34% | 93.35% | 90.50% |
| 10.000 | 20.24% | 17.83% | 99.59% | 99.10% |
The table clearly shows, that the chance to win is dropping, but not by a high margin. So if you can get cards for a good price, then join our little mining community!
Also I did update my Ticket Counting google sheet with this new information. So when you calculate your tickets it will also show how much chance you have to win once hourly and daily.
Updated Ticket Counting Tool Link
Enjoy!
PS: In case you find any calculation errors, then let me know.
That was all for today. I hope you liked this overview and if you are missing any content, then feel free to ask, or jump into the WOO discord channel
Picture of the teacher shot by Katerina Homes, taken from: https://www.pexels.com/photo/happy-black-woman-using-laptop-for-online-work-5905713/
All other pictures are taken from the WOO discord and website and adjusted for the content.
Very good info! Shows mining is still worth it for newcomers! ⛏
That's the info I was out for :)
i !LUV your posts as they are informative and good quality, but there must be a problem with the calculations, because I have 1301 tickets and I didn't win any in the last 4 days. The calculations says I have around 45% chance for winning in each day.
Maybe I have a lose streak, but after I hope there will be at least 4 win in a row! 😇
Thanks for the feedback.
Mining is down for the last 2 days (since Saturday afternoon) unfortunately. The team is looking into a permanent fix, as this is the second outage in the last month or so (usually it starts when Splinterlands has massive requests).
The WOO team is also thinking about investing into a node if possible to have increase stability, but unfortunately we don't have a quick fix yet.
Dear @arkasz,
May I ask you to review and support the Dev Marketing Proposal (https://peakd.com/me/proposals/232) we presented on Conference Day 1 at HiveFest?
The campaign aims to onboard new application developers to grow our ecosystem. If you missed the presentation, you can watch it on YouTube.
You cast your vote for the proposal on Peakd, Ecency, Hive.blog or using HiveSigner.
Thank you!
HI @arcange, sorry for the late reply, was on holidays and still lying in bed with Covid... Great initiative, hope it will bring in a few projects. Supported.
Hello @arkasz, sorry to hear about your covid issue. Wishing you a quick and full recovery.
Thank you for your support, really appreciate it! 👍