Wake Me Up in Autumn

God candles... We haven't seen any on bitcoin since a few months now, but the volatility is here and it's manifesting in both ways, up and down. We've had a pretty disturbing volatility last week for us bulls waiting for the market to exit its range and take us to new ATHs.

I guess we need more time to spend digesting the spot ETF approval rally... Or maybe whales are at it, manipulating the market once again as they did for ages. Who knows... I would incline towards a mix of these factors. I don't believe the dump was entirely caused by Mt.Gox and the German government as I don't believe the pump was only the result of spot ETFs buying bitcoin like there's no tomorrow.

It is already Monday in my part of the world and BTC looks fine to me. This morning, it even surprised me by being way higher than where I would expect to find it. Sooner than later, the miners will capitulate, we will have our long-awaited supply shock, and the price will skyrocket, like it did in 2020, 2016, and with every halving so far.

We've been focused too much on ETFs and other noise, overlooking the fact that supply on exchanges is drying up, and liquidity matters a lot in the crypto markets. The more you have of a coin, the less price appreciation you can expect. Wake me up in autumn. This thought occurred to my mind when checking the market this morning.

The halving takes time to digest and "be processed by the miners," and if you have a look at the all-time charts of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and almost any relevant coin in the space, you will see that usually fall to winter time is when the fun resumes during the halving years. All we got for 2024 was a more-than-expected pre-halving pump and a more-than-expected post-halving dump...

We just need to align with previous cycles' patterns and we are good to go. One important thing to also mention is the fact that it seems the crypto markets have decoupled from the traditional markets. I believe this happens because traditional markets are rallying in anticipation of the elections, while crypto is somehow waiting for Trump to win the elections, or just doing its halving cycles.

Again, coming to analyzing charts, you will realize that during halving years, often times in fall-winter is when the real rally begins for the broader scope of the market and not just Bitcoin. We don't know how high BTC will go as an all-time high for this cycle. We can assume it will be something around $100,000, but we've seen already its velocity, but in the case of altcoins, we haven't seen anything yet.

That's why I am not excited and uberly bullish on altcoins yet. History has shown us that altcoins tend to lag and that they usually start their massive rallies at the end of the halving years. Well, 2024 is a halving year, just like 2020 and 2016 did, and the best is yet to come.

If the bull market is already over, then I need a cold shower and a job... But I doubt the bull market can be over just a couple of months after the halving with no altcoins season at all. The AI meme coins pumps we've seen so far are nothing in comparison to what's coming. Sticking to the plan and riding the bull (not overtrading) will be such a hell of a job over the coming months and year ahead.

What do you think?

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian