The Flush Out: Is Mt.Gox "Black Swan Enough”?

The bloodbath continues, whether we like it or not. However, as the saying goes, "buy when there's blood on the streets, even if it's your own." It's doubtful that many are buying crypto lately due to the high levels of fear. As usual, the majority is more motivated to enter the market when it's on the rise rather than when it's in decline.

By now, most of us are aware of what caused the dump: FUD surrounding Mt.Gox's repayment of its creditors and the German government's decision to sell Bitcoin that it had seized. We are at war – a war against our emotions and market manipulators.

The recovery won't be swift, and from my perspective, the head start we've had this bull market, with achieving a new ATH for BTC prior to its halving, is being burned down now with the current meltdown.

Three months ago, a highly relevant account that I follow on Twitter stated that Bitcoin wouldn't do much in the next three to six months. Here we are, three months later, and Bitcoin is indeed failing to live up to its typical bull market behavior. The excessive hype over a short period of time has brought it back down to earth, to the four-year halving-dependent cycle.

The sentiment across the board is abysmal... I even saw one person recently argue that those responsible for the current price actions are those who bought into worthless meme coins instead of Bitcorn. A plausible argument, indeed... He also mentioned that he quit crypto Twitter for that reason but has since returned 😀. The overall sentiment currently is comparable to that of 2020, when nobody believed we would have a bull market anymore after the world was essentially locked down.

47,229 BTC have been transferred from a Mt.Gox wallet to several exchanges, which are about to repay the affected customers of the long-defunct Mt.Gox exchange within the next 90 days. They won't be repaid all at once, and we don't know if everyone will sell. From what I know, they're receiving around 1/10 of their original stake.

Then there's also the German government, which is offloading seized Bitcoin daily. The situation has reached a point where a German MP has urged the government to stop selling Bitcoin... You read that right...

Bundestag member Joana Cotar strongly criticized the German government’s recent decision to sell a substantial portion of its Bitcoin holdings.

She addressed her concerns to Saxony’s Minister, President Michael Kretschmer, Finance Minister Christian Lindner, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz, urging them to rethink the strategy.

She emphasized the counterproductive nature of this approach and invited the officials to attend an upcoming lecture event titled “Bitcoin Strategies for Nation States” on Oct. 17. The event will feature Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3 and a prominent Bitcoin strategist.
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I doubt this will help in any way, but I appreciate the MP for taking initiative to educate the German government on what Bitcoin is. Apparently, no one anticipated the current selling pressure when everyone was screaming that BTC ETFs were buying up all the Bitcoin in existence. Where are the ETFs now, sir?

According to f2pool data, when Bitcoin fell below $56,000, only six mining machines were still profitable, including S21 Hyd, S21, A1466I, S19 XP Hyd, S19 XP and M56S++. At a rate of $0.08/kWh, ASICs less efficient than 23 W/T operate at a loss.
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Mining capitulation is a good sign... When miners no longer have anything to sell, liquidity dries up, and then you have your supply shock. Isn't this what we were expecting for the current bull market? Oh, I forgot, ETFs were supposed to buy even the unmined Bitcoin... What a joke this narrative is now. @edicted was right when mocking all these gurus who praised ETFs gobbling up all the Bitcoin just a few months ago.

Am I still bullish?

Yes, I am, despite the discomfort... It's only two months since the halving occurred, and I believe the current discounts can generate life-changing money for whoever has the cash and guts to buy the dip. I have the guts, but not the cash. Once every amateur becomes an expert again, I'll start cashing out some, so I won't be left empty-handed during the next correction. What do you think?

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian