"Rat Poison": The Road To Irrelevance
Why isn't anyone talking about gold lately despite its quiet rally and its new spot price ATH? Well, it's because digital gold (Bitcoin) is doing hell much better. Believe it or not, but Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, was right; Bitcoin is gradually becoming a flight to safety, and along with it, so are a bunch of altcoins rallying.
In my latest post on Hive, I briefly mentioned that BTC was close to $40k and about to break it. I wrote that post about an hour before going to bed, and when I woke up, I was surprised (to some extent) to see that BTC was well above $41,000 ($40k broken), and my long on DOGE was doing relatively well too.
BTC is up 150% this year, and although a correction might be on the way, we have to admit that quite a few bears have been fried this year along with their short positions. I wonder when Capo will turn bullish again? Probably near the top, as most of the plebs will.
"Charts are worthless"
I saw this comment on one of Jason Pizzino's tweets, and to me, this is a pure example of denial coming from individuals who are sidelined despite the insane opportunities they had to enter the market throughout the end of 2022 and pretty much the whole year of 2023. They will probably hop in somewhere close to $100,000 BTC so that they don't miss the rally to $1 million BTC.
It's not going to happen; Bitcoin won't go to $1 million this cycle, but the fuel poured on its fire by the approval of the spot ETFs in America and the halving scheduled to occur sometime in April 2024 will for sure make Bitcoin blast past $100,000.
That does not mean we should ignore Bitcoin's 587-day high and streak. I am not good at charts, but I sure like memorizing sentiment in the markets, and I definitely remember how the majority was feeling about BTC back in the days when it was barely trying to pierce the $20K resistance. Those days are gone. Even if BTC will experience a correction sometime in the near future, I doubt it will dive below $25K.
Bull markets climb the walls of worry; they are about breaking resistances and conquering new ATHs, but nothing will ever go in a straight line for long periods of time. My gut feeling tells me that there is still quite some fuel left for BTC in its current rally, and we might see it between $45,000 and $48,000 sooner than the majority would envision.
However, such a level will for sure trigger a well-deserved correction. I'm not trading the market. I have a long on DOGE that I opened at $0.07; my liquidation point stands at $0.062 and am currently on profit. But other than that, my coins are in self-custody and doing well.
Charlie Munger, Warren Buffet's associate who called Bitcoin rat poison, died at 99 a few days ago. Had he lived a few more days, he would have witnessed BTC overcoming Berkshire Hathaway in terms of market cap. Bitcoin right now, despite being over $20k down from its ATH, is at the same level in terms of market capitalization that the whole crypto market was back in 2021 at the peak.
About one year ago, the European Central Bank called Bitcoin's value "an artificially induced last gasp before the crypto asset embarks on the road to irrelevance." I bet Christine Lagarde is proud of herself for that statement.
You see, at the end of the day, navigating the crypto cycles is not as difficult as it seems; all one needs to do is be disciplined and be a contrarian. Doing the opposite of the masses, not only when it comes to crypto but in general, puts one on a path to achieving much more than he/she would achieve if he/she would go along with the masses.
Altcoins are still lagging Bitcoin's performance by a large margin, especially HIVE, but don't lose hope; once BTC finds a local top, we will see some of that capital moving into some of the altcoins, if not all of them. For the moment, it is Bitcoin's show, and thus far, its "road to irrelevance" has been a hell of a fun and rewarding one.
I am not looking to secure any profits any time soon, despite being almost all in crypto, but once the permabears start becoming bullish on crypto once again, I will do my contrarian things and start selling. I definitely want to make this bull market matter and avoid the pain the past bear market caused. What about you? What do you think about BTC's latest rally, and how are you tackling the current bull market?
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian