Higher for Longer

The Koreans have once again pulled off a pump-and-dump stunt on HIVE, and from what I’ve observed, they’ve actually pushed HIVE lower than where the pump began—down from $0.32. Granted, the broader market is down by a few billion since last week, but still...

As 2024 nears its end, nearly none of the predictions from the most alarmist crypto analysts have materialized. We haven’t topped out, nor are we in a bear market, which they claimed would be triggered by a recession.

Honestly, I don’t see any signs of a recession around me. Sure, prices have skyrocketed over the past couple of years, thanks to fabricated inflation, but there’s no bubble bursting, and no recession in sight.

The S&P500 is hovering near its freshly claimed ATH, Bitcoin is dancing below $100,000, and, believe it or not, some folks are already selling their altcoins. Just yesterday, a friend of mine at the gym mentioned he’s thinking of selling half his altcoin portfolio...

He doesn’t believe altcoins will rally much further, which, in my opinion, is completely wrong. The strategy here is so simple it’s almost painful: buy during the bear market when altcoins are down 90% and sell when waves of fresh cash flood the market.

The current disbelief I’m noticing, right before the altcoin market truly takes off, tells me we’re in for higher highs and a longer run. And by "longer," I don’t mean any of that super-cycle nonsense. I’m talking about a rally that outlasts everyone’s expectations.

I’ve been through two bull markets—both messy in their own ways—but one thing is clear: when altcoins hit their final phase, all your price targets get obliterated.

I still remember late 2017, when XLM, which had already rallied 30X from its bear-market low of $0.005, hit $0.05 and seemed maxed out. Then it defied all predictions, topping out at $0.90. We haven’t seen that kind of explosive move yet in this market.

Some folks are comparing the 2020-2021 bull market to this one, but in my opinion, they’re drawing the wrong parallels. Bitcoin is at $100,000 with an RSI sitting at 76, yet many altcoins haven’t even started moving properly.

When you look at your portfolio day after day and can’t believe your eyes, when it’s suddenly 10X over the course of a month, then it’s time to start worrying about a top. We’re not there yet.

Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on optimism, and die in euphoria. We’ve still got some climbing to do before euphoria hits, but it will happen. No doubt about it.

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian