Bull Farts

A Black Swan event in finance is an extremely negative occurrence that is incredibly difficult to predict. Many analysts rushed to label the Iranian attack last night over Israel, which caused the fall in the crypto markets, as a black swan event. It is not.

The attack was provoked by Israel, and it was expected. America was literally begging for it... The attack itself amounted to nothing more than a blip, as all of the rockets were intercepted by the Iron Dome, along with American and British fighter jets. Once the market realized this, it bounced back.

We're not yet at the point where everything has fallen, but I believe this was the final shakeout before the parabolic rise. In 2020, when COVID was announced, BTC dropped by around 50% in a very short period of time. Now, we've only seen a 5% drop in 24 hours, which is normal for a bull market in my opinion.

The seven-month-long rally we experienced throughout the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 had to come to an end, and the market needed to cool off. Whatever the external catalysts may have been, it doesn't matter. What matters are the charts, and charts don't lie.

I'm not proficient with charts, but I plan on learning technical analysis once the bull market is over. I'll be able to afford to buy some books for that, but for now, I follow a handful of people on Twitter who are good at charting, and according to them, the fall was anticipated.

Again, what happened last night was not a black swan event. It was nothing more than an Iranian attack that scared weak hands out of the market and allowed us to buy more. I made around $60 with a small trade on DOGE after the fall, but I'm not trading much these days.

However, it's worth noting that the halving is just five days away. Five days... Some say it shouldn't have a significant impact on the market and that the market usually dumps around that date, but I believe the impact is more emotional, especially since we've already experienced a significant drop from $74,000.

It might be time for "up only" once again, entering the blow-off top phase of the market. If you recall March 2020, although we shouldn't directly compare that black swan event with what happened last night, once the market digested the news, it was "up only."

Everyone talks about WW3, but it won't happen until everyone stops talking about it, if ever... The market has digested the COVID situation and the Ukraine war; do you really think it won't recover from a minor Iranian attack on Israel? I believe it will.

We should also consider that Hong Kong is launching their Bitcoin and Ether spot ETFs on Monday, and the halving is happening next week. I couldn't be more bullish on crypto during such times, regardless of the external atmosphere. We're in a bull market, and we'll remain in one until demand dries up.

We're not there yet... Ignore the noise, focus on the charts and patterns, and make a difference for yourself in this bull market.

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian